Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 21/10, 05:00

Prediction: INAC Leonessa (W) vs JEF Utd Chiba (W)

Team pages: INAC Leonessa (W) · JEF Utd Chiba (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

INAC Leonessa (W)1.93

JEF Utd Chiba (W)1.17

1X2

54% 24% 22%

INAC Leonessa (W) Draw JEF Utd Chiba (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

INAC Leonessa (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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JEF Utd Chiba (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

INAC Leonessa (W) 4–1–1 JEF Utd Chiba (W) (6 last)

JEF Utd Chiba (W)3-2INAC Leonessa (W)
INAC Leonessa (W)4-0JEF Utd Chiba (W)
JEF Utd Chiba (W)0-1INAC Leonessa (W)
INAC Leonessa (W)2-1JEF Utd Chiba (W)
JEF Utd Chiba (W)1-2INAC Leonessa (W)
INAC Leonessa (W)1-1JEF Utd Chiba (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · INAC Leonessa (W) 1513 · JEF Utd Chiba (W) 1528

	INAC Leonessa (W)	Draw	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours INAC Leonessa (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	INAC Leonessa (W)	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	0.9 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.8 / 0	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.75

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.68
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.65 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:01 +3’	1.65	3.75	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +52’	1.61	3.71	5.02
07:03	1.68▲	3.55▼	4.65▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · INAC Leonessa (W) 4–1–1 JEF Utd Chiba (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/09/26 Japan League Cup Women	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	3-2 HT 0-0	INAC Leonessa (W)
29/03/26 Japan Women Empowerment League	INAC Leonessa (W)	4-0 HT 0-0	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
05/10/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	INAC Leonessa (W)
16/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	INAC Leonessa (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
24/11/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	INAC Leonessa (W)
26/10/24 Japan League Cup Women	INAC Leonessa (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	JEF Utd Chiba (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	INAC Leonessa (W)	5	3	1	1	13	9	10
2	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	4	3	0	1	10	7	9
4	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
6	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
7	Cerezo Osaka (W)	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
8	Albirex Niigata (W)	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
9	Nojima (W)	4	1	1	2	5	11	4
10	Mynavi Sendai (W)	4	1	0	3	7	10	3
11	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
12	Omiya Ardija (W)	4	1	0	3	2	6	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	INAC Leonessa (W)	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
Mynavi Sendai (W)	4-3 W	2-0 W
Omiya Ardija (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

INAC Leonessa (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	4-3	1	0	W
06/09	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	4-1	5	0	W
02/09	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	2-2	12	1	D
30/08	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
22/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
16/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
03/05	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	5-1	9	1	W
25/04	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	2-1	1	2	W
05/04	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W

JEF Utd Chiba (W)

LWLLDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
05/09	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
30/08	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
23/08	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
16/05	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
10/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/05	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
25/04	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
05/04	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/03	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-4	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in INAC Leonessa (W) vs JEF Utd Chiba (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a INAC Leonessa (W) win (54%). Probabilities: INAC Leonessa (W) 54%, draw 24%, JEF Utd Chiba (W) 22%.

How many goals are expected in INAC Leonessa (W) vs JEF Utd Chiba (W)?

The model expects 3.1 goals (INAC Leonessa (W) 1.93 · JEF Utd Chiba (W) 1.17), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in INAC Leonessa (W) vs JEF Utd Chiba (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.