Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 25/10, 05:00

Prediction: Omiya Ardija (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)

Team pages: Omiya Ardija (W) · Cerezo Osaka (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Omiya Ardija (W)1.25

Cerezo Osaka (W)1.23

1X2

36% 30% 34%

Omiya Ardija (W) Draw Cerezo Osaka (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Omiya Ardija (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Cerezo Osaka (W) 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDDWLD

Head-to-head

Omiya Ardija (W) 4–2 Cerezo Osaka (W) (6 last)

Cerezo Osaka (W)2-3Omiya Ardija (W)
Omiya Ardija (W)1-3Cerezo Osaka (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)1-5Omiya Ardija (W)
Omiya Ardija (W)1-0Cerezo Osaka (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)2-1Omiya Ardija (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)1-2Omiya Ardija (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Omiya Ardija (W) 1496 · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1481

	Omiya Ardija (W)	Draw	Cerezo Osaka (W)
Our model	36%	30%	34%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Omiya Ardija (W): 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Omiya Ardija (W)	Cerezo Osaka (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.7 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:38 +18’	2.50	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Omiya Ardija (W) 4–0–2 Cerezo Osaka (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/26 Japan League Cup Women	Cerezo Osaka (W)	2-3 HT 0-1	Omiya Ardija (W)
19/04/26 Japan League Cup Women	Omiya Ardija (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Cerezo Osaka (W)
12/04/26 Japan League Cup Women	Cerezo Osaka (W)	1-5	Omiya Ardija (W)
15/02/26 Japan Women Empowerment League	Omiya Ardija (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Cerezo Osaka (W)
05/10/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Cerezo Osaka (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Omiya Ardija (W)
17/05/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Cerezo Osaka (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Omiya Ardija (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	INAC Leonessa (W)	6	3	1	2	14	11	10
2	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	4	3	0	1	10	7	9
4	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	5	3	0	2	8	7	9
5	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	5	2	1	2	5	4	7
6	Nojima (W)	5	2	1	2	6	11	7
7	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
8	Mynavi Sendai (W)	5	2	0	3	9	11	6
9	Cerezo Osaka (W)	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
10	Albirex Niigata (W)	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
11	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
12	Omiya Ardija (W)	4	1	0	3	2	6	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Omiya Ardija (W)	Cerezo Osaka (W)
Albirex Niigata (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	0-1 L	2-3 L
Nojima (W)	0-4 L	2-2 D
JEF Utd Chiba (W)	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cerezo Osaka (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Omiya Ardija (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
05/09	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	2-1	7	0	W
29/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
22/08	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
16/05	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
10/05	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
02/05	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
26/04	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
05/04	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
22/02	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	2	0	W

Cerezo Osaka (W)

DLLWDDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-1	2-2	6	1	D
05/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
30/08	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
23/08	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/05	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-1	0	3	D
10/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
03/05	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
26/04	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
04/04	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	2-3	–	–	L
28/03	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	9	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Omiya Ardija (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Omiya Ardija (W) win (36%). Probabilities: Omiya Ardija (W) 36%, draw 30%, Cerezo Osaka (W) 34%.

How many goals are expected in Omiya Ardija (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Omiya Ardija (W) 1.25 · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1.23), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Omiya Ardija (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.