Prediction: EC Bahia vs Chapecoense
| EC Bahia | Draw | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 20% | 12% |
| Market | 67% | 21% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chapecoense (rating 1475 vs 1516).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| EC Bahia | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.8 | 1.5 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Bahia 2–2–2 Chapecoense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/22 Brazil Serie B | Chapecoense | 3-1 HT 0-1 | EC Bahia |
| 15/06/22 Brazil Serie B | EC Bahia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Chapecoense |
| 25/10/21 Brazil Serie A | EC Bahia | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Chapecoense |
| 04/07/21 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 0-2 HT 0-0 | EC Bahia |
| 07/11/19 Brazil Serie A | EC Bahia | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Chapecoense |
| 28/07/19 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | EC Bahia |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | EC Bahia | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Gremio | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Remo | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Cruzeiro | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Chapecoense (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
EC Bahia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Torque America Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 9 | W |
| 26/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 14/05 | Remo Copa do Brasil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 23/04 | Remo Copa do Brasil |
1-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 20/04 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
Chapecoense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Gremio America Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 04/06 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Botafogo Copa do Brasil |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in EC Bahia vs Chapecoense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Bahia win (67%). Probabilities: EC Bahia 67%, draw 20%, Chapecoense 12%.
How many goals are expected in EC Bahia vs Chapecoense?
The model expects 3.11 goals (EC Bahia 2.24 · Chapecoense 0.88), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in EC Bahia vs Chapecoense?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.