Football · Brazil Serie A · 26/07, 23:30

Prediction: Bragantino vs Coritiba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Bragantino1.93

Coritiba0.98

1X2

58% 24% 17%

Bragantino Draw Coritiba

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bragantino 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWWWWD

Coritiba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDLWWL

Head-to-head

Bragantino 4–1–1 Coritiba (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bragantino 1587 · Coritiba 1479

	Bragantino	Draw	Coritiba
Our model	59%	24%	18%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bragantino (rating 1587 vs 1479).
H2H favours Bragantino: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bragantino	Coritiba
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/22/11%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	5.00 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +3’	1.67	3.70	5.00
04:11 +2’	1.61▼	3.80▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bragantino 4–1–1 Coritiba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/01/26 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-0	Bragantino
03/12/23 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-0 HT 0-0	Coritiba
06/08/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-1	Bragantino
09/10/22 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	2-1 HT 1-1	Bragantino
16/06/22 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	4-2 HT 3-0	Coritiba
06/12/20 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-0 HT 0-0	Bragantino

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	18	12	5	1	30	13	41
2	Flamengo	17	10	4	3	31	16	34
3	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
4	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
5	Athletico Paranaense	18	9	3	6	24	18	30
6	EC Bahia	18	8	5	5	27	23	29
7	Coritiba	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Sao Paulo	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	Botafogo	18	7	4	7	33	32	25
10	Vitoria	18	7	4	7	22	25	25
11	Atletico Mineiro	18	7	3	8	22	23	24
12	Corinthians	18	6	6	6	18	19	24
13	Cruzeiro	18	6	6	6	24	28	24
14	Internacional	18	5	6	7	21	22	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	18	4	6	8	21	29	18
20	Chapecoense	18	1	6	11	17	35	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bragantino	Coritiba
Internacional	3-1 W	2-2 D
Vitoria	2-0 W	1-4 L
Santos	0-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bragantino (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bragantino

WLLWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
11/07	Athletico Paranaense America Friendlies	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
28/05	Carabobo Copa Sudamericana	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
25/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
21/05	River Plate Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
17/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
14/05	Mirassol Copa do Brasil	1-1	1-2	4	0	L
10/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
08/05	Blooming Copa Sudamericana	3-0	6-0	3	5	W

Coritiba

DWDLLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
26/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-2	3	3	W
17/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
14/05	Santos Copa do Brasil	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
09/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
02/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-4	4	5	L
26/04	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
23/04	Santos Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/04	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
12/04	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bragantino vs Coritiba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bragantino win (58%). Probabilities: Bragantino 58%, draw 24%, Coritiba 17%.

How many goals are expected in Bragantino vs Coritiba?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Bragantino 1.93 · Coritiba 0.98), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bragantino vs Coritiba?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.