Football · Brazil Serie A · 26/07, 23:30
Prediction: Gremio vs Fluminense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Gremio1.32
Fluminense1.29
1X2
Gremio
Draw
Fluminense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gremio
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Fluminense
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gremio
1–1–4
Fluminense
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gremio 1533 · Fluminense 1562
| Gremio | Draw | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Fluminense: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gremio | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/33/33% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.5 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 1–1–4 Fluminense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Gremio |
| 03/12/25 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Fluminense |
| 03/08/25 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gremio |
| 02/11/24 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Gremio |
| 21/08/24 Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Gremio |
| 14/08/24 Copa Libertadores | Gremio | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Fluminense |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 32 |
| 4 | Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 30 |
| 5 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 29 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 32 | 25 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 12 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 30 | 20 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 19 |
| 19 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gremio | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Cruzeiro | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| EC Bahia | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gremio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Cruzeiro Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Chapecoense America Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Cascavel America Friendlies |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | Torque Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Palestino Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 15/05 | AD Confianca Copa do Brasil |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
Fluminense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 12/07 | EC Bahia America Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 09/07 | Nova Iguacu America Friendlies |
2-1 | 6-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | Operario PR Copa do Brasil |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gremio vs Fluminense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio win (36%). Probabilities: Gremio 36%, draw 29%, Fluminense 35%.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Fluminense?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Gremio 1.32 · Fluminense 1.29), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.