Football · Brazil Serie A · 26/07, 21:00

Prediction: EC Bahia vs Corinthians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

EC Bahia1.64

Corinthians1.25

1X2

45% 28% 28%

EC Bahia Draw Corinthians

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

EC Bahia 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDLWWLW

Corinthians 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDWLWD

Head-to-head

EC Bahia 3–1–2 Corinthians (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Bahia 1494 · Corinthians 1494

	EC Bahia	Draw	Corinthians
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	44%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours EC Bahia: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Bahia	Corinthians
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.9	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +1’	2.10	3.30	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Bahia 3–1–2 Corinthians

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/01/26 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	1-2 HT 1-2	EC Bahia
17/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	1-2 HT 1-2	EC Bahia
31/03/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 1-0	Corinthians
04/12/24 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	3-0 HT 2-0	EC Bahia
21/07/24 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	0-1 HT 0-1	Corinthians
25/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	1-5 HT 0-3	EC Bahia

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	18	12	5	1	30	13	41
2	Flamengo	17	10	4	3	31	16	34
3	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
4	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
5	Athletico Paranaense	18	9	3	6	24	18	30
6	EC Bahia	18	8	5	5	27	23	29
7	Coritiba	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Sao Paulo	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	Botafogo	18	7	4	7	33	32	25
10	Vitoria	18	7	4	7	22	25	25
11	Atletico Mineiro	18	7	3	8	22	23	24
12	Corinthians	18	6	6	6	18	19	24
13	Cruzeiro	18	6	6	6	24	28	24
14	Internacional	18	5	6	7	21	22	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	18	4	6	8	21	29	18
20	Chapecoense	18	1	6	11	17	35	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Bahia	Corinthians
Botafogo	2-1 W	1-3 L
Gremio	1-1 D	3-1 W
Sao Paulo	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Corinthians (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

EC Bahia

DDLLDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
12/07	Fluminense America Friendlies	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
04/07	Torque America Friendlies	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
30/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
26/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
17/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
14/05	Remo Copa do Brasil	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
10/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
03/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
25/04	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	5	7	D

Corinthians

LDWWLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	FC Cascavel America Friendlies	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
30/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	8	6	W
28/05	Platense Copa Libertadores	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
24/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/05	Penarol Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-1	5	0	D
17/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	7	L
15/05	Barra FC Copa do Brasil	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
10/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	7	8	W
07/05	Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
04/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Bahia vs Corinthians?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Bahia win (45%). Probabilities: EC Bahia 45%, draw 28%, Corinthians 28%.

How many goals are expected in EC Bahia vs Corinthians?

The model expects 2.89 goals (EC Bahia 1.64 · Corinthians 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Bahia vs Corinthians?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.