Football · Brazil Serie A · 27/07, 00:30
Prediction: Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Palmeiras1.87
Atletico Mineiro0.9
1X2
Palmeiras
Draw
Atletico Mineiro
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Palmeiras
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Atletico Mineiro
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Palmeiras
4–1–1
Atletico Mineiro
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palmeiras 1583 · Atletico Mineiro 1522
| Palmeiras | Draw | Atletico Mineiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1583 vs 1522).
- H2H favours Palmeiras: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palmeiras | Atletico Mineiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.5 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras 4–1–1 Atletico Mineiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Palmeiras |
| 04/12/25 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Palmeiras |
| 20/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 28/09/24 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 18/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Palmeiras |
| 20/10/23 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Mineiro |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 32 |
| 4 | Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 30 |
| 5 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 29 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 32 | 25 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 12 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 30 | 20 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 19 |
| 19 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palmeiras
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Junior Copa Libertadores |
3-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 12 | W |
| 21/05 | Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 14/05 | Jacuipense Copa do Brasil |
3-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Sporting Cristal Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 30/04 | Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Atletico Mineiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Cienciano Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Ceara Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 12 | W |
| 30/04 | Cienciano Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras win (59%). Probabilities: Palmeiras 59%, draw 25%, Atletico Mineiro 16%.
How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Palmeiras 1.87 · Atletico Mineiro 0.9), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.