Football · Brazil Serie A · 26/07, 23:30

Prediction: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Flamengo1.98

Sao Paulo0.89

1X2

62% 23% 15%

Flamengo Draw Sao Paulo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Flamengo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Sao Paulo 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Flamengo 2–2–2 Sao Paulo (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flamengo 1562 · Sao Paulo 1477

	Flamengo	Draw	Sao Paulo
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	62%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1562 vs 1477).
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Flamengo	Sao Paulo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.6	3.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +1’	1.50	4.10	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 2–2–2 Sao Paulo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/01/26 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-1 HT 0-0	Flamengo
06/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-2 HT 1-1	Flamengo
12/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	2-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
19/01/25 America Friendlies	Sao Paulo	0-0 HT 0-0	Flamengo
04/08/24 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	1-0 HT 0-0	Flamengo
18/04/24 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	2-1 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	18	12	5	1	30	13	41
2	Flamengo	17	10	4	3	31	16	34
3	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
4	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
5	Athletico Paranaense	18	9	3	6	24	18	30
6	EC Bahia	18	8	5	5	27	23	29
7	Coritiba	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Sao Paulo	18	7	4	7	23	20	25
9	Botafogo	18	7	4	7	33	32	25
10	Vitoria	18	7	4	7	22	25	25
11	Atletico Mineiro	18	7	3	8	22	23	24
12	Corinthians	18	6	6	6	18	19	24
13	Cruzeiro	18	6	6	6	24	28	24
14	Internacional	18	5	6	7	21	22	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	18	4	6	8	21	29	18
20	Chapecoense	18	1	6	11	17	35	9

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Flamengo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Olimpia Asuncion America Friendlies	3-1	4-2	2	4	W
11/07	Benfica World Club Friendlies	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
08/07	FC Lausanne-Sport World Club Friendlies	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
03/07	River Plate America Friendlies	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
30/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
27/05	Cusco FC Copa Libertadores	0-0	3-0	9	5	W
24/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	8	12	L
21/05	Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
15/05	Vitoria Copa do Brasil	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

Sao Paulo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
27/05	Boston River Copa Sudamericana	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
23/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
20/05	Millonarios Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
17/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
14/05	EC Juventude Copa do Brasil	0-0	1-3	4	4	L
10/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	7	8	L
08/05	O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
03/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	14	5	D
29/04	Millonarios Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (62%). Probabilities: Flamengo 62%, draw 23%, Sao Paulo 15%.

How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Flamengo 1.98 · Sao Paulo 0.89), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.