Football · Brazil Serie A · 24/07, 00:30
Prediction: Botafogo vs Vitoria
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Botafogo1.84
Vitoria1.05
1X2
Botafogo
Draw
Vitoria
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Botafogo
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Vitoria
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botafogo
3–3–0
Vitoria
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botafogo 1528 · Vitoria 1563
| Botafogo | Draw | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Botafogo: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botafogo | Vitoria | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 3–3–0 Vitoria
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
| 17/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
| 23/11/24 Brazil Serie A | Botafogo | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Vitoria |
| 12/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Botafogo |
| 23/05/24 Copa do Brasil | Vitoria | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Botafogo |
| 03/05/24 Copa do Brasil | Botafogo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botafogo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 28/05 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 21/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | Chapecoense Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 07/05 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 4 | W |
Vitoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 28/05 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-2 | 6-2 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Flamengo Copa do Brasil |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | Ceara Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Vitoria?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo win (55%). Probabilities: Botafogo 55%, draw 26%, Vitoria 20%.
How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Vitoria?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Botafogo 1.84 · Vitoria 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vitoria?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.