Football · Brazil Serie A · 31/07, 02:30

Prediction: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Coritiba1.18

Cruzeiro1.36

1X2

31% 30% 39%

Coritiba Draw Cruzeiro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Coritiba 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLWWLL

Cruzeiro 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Coritiba 3–2–1 Cruzeiro (6 last)

Cruzeiro1-2Coritiba
Coritiba1-0Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro0-0Coritiba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coritiba 1475 · Cruzeiro 1554

	Coritiba	Draw	Cruzeiro
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	31%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruzeiro (rating 1475 vs 1554).
H2H favours Coritiba: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coritiba	Cruzeiro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	3.1 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.6	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +3’	3.00	3.10	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coritiba 3–2–1 Cruzeiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	1-2 HT 1-1	Coritiba
11/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-0 HT 0-0	Cruzeiro
16/07/23 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	0-0 HT 0-0	Coritiba
09/10/21 Brazil Serie B	Coritiba	0-3 HT 0-2	Cruzeiro
07/07/21 Brazil Serie B	Cruzeiro	0-0 HT 0-0	Coritiba
18/10/17 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-0 HT 1-0	Cruzeiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	19	13	5	1	33	14	44
2	Flamengo	18	11	4	3	35	16	37
3	Athletico Paranaense	19	10	3	6	26	19	33
4	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
5	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
6	EC Bahia	19	8	6	5	28	24	30
7	Corinthians	19	7	6	6	21	19	27
8	Cruzeiro	19	7	6	6	26	29	27
9	Botafogo	19	7	5	7	33	32	26
10	Coritiba	19	7	5	7	25	27	26
11	Vitoria	19	7	5	7	22	25	26
12	Sao Paulo	19	7	4	8	24	22	25
13	Atletico Mineiro	19	7	4	8	23	24	25
14	Internacional	19	5	6	8	22	24	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	19	4	6	9	21	32	18
20	Chapecoense	19	1	6	12	17	39	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coritiba	Cruzeiro
Palmeiras	1-3 L	1-1 D
EC Bahia	3-2 W	2-1 W
Internacional	2-2 D	2-1 W
Gremio	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cruzeiro (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Coritiba

WDLLDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
30/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
26/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-2	3	3	W
17/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
14/05	Santos Copa do Brasil	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
09/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
02/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-4	4	5	L
26/04	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
23/04	Santos Copa do Brasil	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/04	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	4	W

Cruzeiro

WWDDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	8	W
12/07	Gremio Club Friendly List	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
04/07	Defensor Sporting America Friendlies	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
01/06	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
29/05	Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores	1-0	4-0	6	6	W
24/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
20/05	Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
17/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
13/05	Goias Copa do Brasil	1-0	1-0	14	4	W
10/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruzeiro win (39%). Probabilities: Coritiba 31%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 39%.

How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Coritiba 1.18 · Cruzeiro 1.36), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.