Football · Brazil Serie A · 31/07, 00:30
Prediction: Corinthians vs Athletico Paranaense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.06Total
Corinthians1.29
Athletico Paranaense0.77
1X2
Corinthians
Draw
Athletico Paranaense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Corinthians
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Athletico Paranaense
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Corinthians
5–1–0
Athletico Paranaense
(6 last)
- Athletico Paranaense0-1Corinthians
- Corinthians2-0Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense0-1Corinthians
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Corinthians 1537 · Athletico Paranaense 1505
| Corinthians | Draw | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 31% | 21% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Corinthians: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Corinthians | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 11/56/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5 | 3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians 5–1–0 Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Corinthians |
| 11/09/25 Copa do Brasil | Corinthians | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 28/08/25 Copa do Brasil | Athletico Paranaense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Corinthians |
| 18/10/24 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 5-2 HT 2-2 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 23/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Corinthians |
| 01/11/23 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 44 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 37 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 33 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 32 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 30 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 24 | 30 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 27 |
| 8 | Cruzeiro | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 27 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 33 | 32 | 26 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 26 |
| 11 | Vitoria | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 26 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 25 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 14 | Internacional | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 30 | 20 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 19 |
| 19 | Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 39 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Corinthians | Athletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| Remo | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Gremio | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Sao Paulo | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Corinthians (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Corinthians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | FC Cascavel America Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Platense Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Penarol Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 15/05 | Barra FC Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 07/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Bragantino America Friendlies |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/07 | Boca Juniors America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Atletico GO Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Corinthians vs Athletico Paranaense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians win (48%). Probabilities: Corinthians 48%, draw 30%, Athletico Paranaense 22%.
How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model expects 2.06 goals (Corinthians 1.29 · Athletico Paranaense 0.77), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.