Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/07, 00:30

Prediction: Internacional vs Flamengo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Internacional1.22

Flamengo1.71

1X2

26% 27% 47%

Internacional Draw Flamengo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWWLLL

Flamengo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Internacional 0–2–4 Flamengo (6 last)

Flamengo1-1Internacional
Internacional0-2Flamengo
Internacional1-3Flamengo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional 1487 · Flamengo 1600

	Internacional	Draw	Flamengo
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	25%	29%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1487 vs 1600).
H2H favours Flamengo: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional	Flamengo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.25

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.05

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:51 +1’	3.70	3.25	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional 0–2–4 Flamengo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	1-1 HT 0-1	Internacional
21/08/25 Copa Libertadores	Internacional	0-2 HT 0-1	Flamengo
17/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-3 HT 0-2	Flamengo
14/08/25 Copa Libertadores	Flamengo	1-0 HT 1-0	Internacional
30/03/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	1-1 HT 0-1	Internacional
01/12/24 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	3-2 HT 3-0	Internacional

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	19	13	5	1	33	14	44
2	Flamengo	18	11	4	3	35	16	37
3	Athletico Paranaense	19	10	3	6	26	19	33
4	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
5	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
6	EC Bahia	19	8	6	5	28	24	30
7	Corinthians	19	7	6	6	21	19	27
8	Cruzeiro	19	7	6	6	26	29	27
9	Botafogo	19	7	5	7	33	32	26
10	Coritiba	19	7	5	7	25	27	26
11	Vitoria	19	7	5	7	22	25	26
12	Sao Paulo	19	7	4	8	24	22	25
13	Atletico Mineiro	19	7	4	8	23	24	25
14	Internacional	19	5	6	8	22	24	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	19	4	6	9	21	32	18
20	Chapecoense	19	1	6	12	17	39	9

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Internacional

WDWWDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
31/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
23/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
13/05	Athletic Club MG Copa do Brasil	2-1	3-2	3	2	W
09/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	8	4	D
07/05	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Recopa Gaucha	0-0	2-1	15	1	W
03/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
25/04	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
23/04	Athletic Club MG Copa do Brasil	1-1	2-1	4	3	W

Flamengo

DWLWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
18/07	Olimpia Asuncion America Friendlies	3-1	4-2	2	4	W
11/07	Benfica World Club Friendlies	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
08/07	FC Lausanne-Sport World Club Friendlies	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
03/07	River Plate America Friendlies	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
30/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
27/05	Cusco FC Copa Libertadores	0-0	3-0	9	5	W
24/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	8	12	L
21/05	Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional vs Flamengo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Flamengo win (47%). Probabilities: Internacional 26%, draw 27%, Flamengo 47%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional vs Flamengo?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Internacional 1.22 · Flamengo 1.71), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional vs Flamengo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.