Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/07, 02:30

Prediction: Fluminense vs EC Bahia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Fluminense1.77

EC Bahia1.07

1X2

53% 26% 22%

Fluminense Draw EC Bahia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fluminense 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDWWD

EC Bahia 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWWLWD

Head-to-head

Fluminense 3–2–1 EC Bahia (6 last)

Fluminense2-0EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-1Fluminense
Fluminense2-0EC Bahia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fluminense 1572 · EC Bahia 1501

	Fluminense	Draw	EC Bahia
Our model	53%	26%	22%
Market	53%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense (rating 1572 vs 1501).
H2H favours Fluminense: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fluminense	EC Bahia
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	3.4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.05

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +5’	1.75	3.60	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fluminense 3–2–1 EC Bahia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 America Friendlies	Fluminense	2-0 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
05/02/26 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 0-1	Fluminense
07/12/25 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	2-0 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
11/09/25 Copa do Brasil	Fluminense	2-0 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
29/08/25 Copa do Brasil	EC Bahia	1-0 HT 0-0	Fluminense
10/08/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	3-3 HT 2-1	Fluminense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	19	13	5	1	33	14	44
2	Flamengo	18	11	4	3	35	16	37
3	Athletico Paranaense	19	10	3	6	26	19	33
4	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
5	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
6	EC Bahia	19	8	6	5	28	24	30
7	Corinthians	19	7	6	6	21	19	27
8	Cruzeiro	19	7	6	6	26	29	27
9	Botafogo	19	7	5	7	33	32	26
10	Coritiba	19	7	5	7	25	27	26
11	Vitoria	19	7	5	7	22	25	26
12	Sao Paulo	19	7	4	8	24	22	25
13	Atletico Mineiro	19	7	4	8	23	24	25
14	Internacional	19	5	6	8	22	24	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	19	4	6	9	21	32	18
20	Chapecoense	19	1	6	12	17	39	9

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fluminense	EC Bahia
Cruzeiro	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sao Paulo	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fluminense (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fluminense

DWWWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	11	7	D
12/07	EC Bahia America Friendlies	0-0	2-0	1	7	W
09/07	Nova Iguacu America Friendlies	2-1	6-1	8	3	W
01/06	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
28/05	Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
24/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
20/05	Bolivar Copa Libertadores	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
13/05	Operario PR Copa do Brasil	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
09/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	6	5	D

EC Bahia

DLLDLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
18/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
12/07	Fluminense America Friendlies	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
04/07	Torque America Friendlies	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
30/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
26/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
17/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
14/05	Remo Copa do Brasil	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
10/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
03/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fluminense vs EC Bahia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fluminense win (53%). Probabilities: Fluminense 53%, draw 26%, EC Bahia 22%.

How many goals are expected in Fluminense vs EC Bahia?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Fluminense 1.77 · EC Bahia 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fluminense vs EC Bahia?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.