Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/07, 02:30

Prediction: Vitoria vs Palmeiras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Vitoria1.24

Palmeiras1.74

1X2

25% 27% 47%

Vitoria Draw Palmeiras

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vitoria 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWLWWW

Palmeiras 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Vitoria 1–2–3 Palmeiras (6 last)

Palmeiras5-1Vitoria
Palmeiras0-0Vitoria
Vitoria2-2Palmeiras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitoria 1561 · Palmeiras 1600

	Vitoria	Draw	Palmeiras
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	25%	29%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Palmeiras: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitoria	Palmeiras
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	3.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.25

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +1’	3.75	3.25	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 1–2–3 Palmeiras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	5-1 HT 3-0	Vitoria
19/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	0-0 HT 0-0	Vitoria
04/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	2-2 HT 1-0	Palmeiras
28/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	0-2 HT 0-0	Vitoria
14/04/24 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	0-1 HT 0-1	Palmeiras
02/12/18 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	3-2 HT 1-0	Vitoria

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	19	13	5	1	33	14	44
2	Flamengo	18	11	4	3	35	16	37
3	Athletico Paranaense	19	10	3	6	26	19	33
4	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
5	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
6	EC Bahia	19	8	6	5	28	24	30
7	Corinthians	19	7	6	6	21	19	27
8	Cruzeiro	19	7	6	6	26	29	27
9	Botafogo	19	7	5	7	33	32	26
10	Coritiba	19	7	5	7	25	27	26
11	Vitoria	19	7	5	7	22	25	26
12	Sao Paulo	19	7	4	8	24	22	25
13	Atletico Mineiro	19	7	4	8	23	24	25
14	Internacional	19	5	6	8	22	24	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	19	4	6	9	21	32	18
20	Chapecoense	19	1	6	12	17	39	9

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitoria	Palmeiras
Santos	1-3 L	1-1 D
Flamengo	2-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vitoria

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
06/06	Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
03/06	Fortaleza Brazil Copa Nordeste	0-0	2-1	7	8	W
31/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	5	8	L
28/05	ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste	1-2	4-3	2	6	W
23/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
21/05	ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste	2-2	6-2	3	9	W
17/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
15/05	Flamengo Copa do Brasil	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
09/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	3	5	D

Palmeiras

DWDWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
31/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
29/05	Junior Copa Libertadores	3-1	4-1	0	3	W
24/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	12	W
21/05	Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
17/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
14/05	Jacuipense Copa do Brasil	3-0	4-1	8	2	W
10/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	17	4	D
06/05	Sporting Cristal Copa Libertadores	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
02/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Palmeiras?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras win (47%). Probabilities: Vitoria 25%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 47%.

How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Palmeiras?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Vitoria 1.24 · Palmeiras 1.74), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Palmeiras?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.