Football · Colombia Primera A · 01/08, 23:05
Prediction: Alianza vs Deportes Tolima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.09Total
Alianza1.06
Deportes Tolima1.04
1X2
Alianza
Draw
Deportes Tolima
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Deportes Tolima
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza
0–5
Deportes Tolima
(5 last)
- Deportes Tolima2-0Alianza
- Alianza0-1Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima3-1Alianza
- Deportes Tolima2-0Alianza
- Alianza0-2Deportes Tolima
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza 1495 · Deportes Tolima 1541
| Alianza | Draw | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 33% | 33% |
| Market | 35% | 31% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Tolima (rating 1495 vs 1541).
- H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 5-0-0.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5 | 3.2 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza 0–0–5 Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza |
| 22/07/25 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportes Tolima |
| 08/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Alianza |
| 20/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza |
| 29/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Deportes Tolima |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Aguilas Doradas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Alianza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | America de Cali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Boyaca Chico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Once Caldas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Cucuta Deportivo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Fortaleza CEIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Independiente Santa Fe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Internacional de Bogota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Junior | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Millonarios | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alianza | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cali | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Pasto | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportes Tolima (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Real San Andres Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 27/04 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 13/04 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 06/04 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/04 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | D |
Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Universitario de Deportes Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Coquimbo Unido Copa Libertadores |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Nacional De Football Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza vs Deportes Tolima?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza win (35%). Probabilities: Alianza 35%, draw 32%, Deportes Tolima 34%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza vs Deportes Tolima?
The model expects 2.09 goals (Alianza 1.06 · Deportes Tolima 1.04), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza vs Deportes Tolima?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.