Football · Colombia Primera A · 02/08, 03:15
Prediction: Junior vs Millonarios
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Junior1.66
Millonarios1.45
1X2
Junior
Draw
Millonarios
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Junior
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Millonarios
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Junior
3–1–2
Millonarios
(6 last)
- Millonarios1-2Junior
- Millonarios3-0Junior
- Junior2-1Millonarios
- Junior0-0Millonarios
- Millonarios2-0Junior
- Junior2-1Millonarios
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Junior 1537 · Millonarios 1496
| Junior | Draw | Millonarios | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Junior (rating 1537 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Junior: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Junior | Millonarios | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 2.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Junior 3–1–2 Millonarios
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/26 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Junior |
| 24/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Junior |
| 09/03/25 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Millonarios |
| 07/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Millonarios |
| 03/06/24 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Junior |
| 05/05/24 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Millonarios |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Aguilas Doradas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Alianza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | America de Cali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Boyaca Chico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Once Caldas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Cucuta Deportivo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Fortaleza CEIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Independiente Santa Fe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Internacional de Bogota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Junior | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Millonarios | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Junior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 09/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/05 | Palmeiras Copa Libertadores |
1-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | Sporting Cristal Copa Libertadores |
3-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 12 | D |
| 11/05 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
Millonarios
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Colo Colo America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Universitario de Deportes America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Cup |
5-0 | 8-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/05 | Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Patriotas FC Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Llaneros Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Boston River Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Junior vs Millonarios?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Junior win (41%). Probabilities: Junior 41%, draw 28%, Millonarios 31%.
How many goals are expected in Junior vs Millonarios?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Junior 1.66 · Millonarios 1.45), with a 60% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Junior vs Millonarios?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.