Football · Colombia Primera A · 03/08, 03:00

Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Once Caldas

Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Once Caldas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Independiente Santa Fe1.32

Once Caldas0.98

1X2

43% 30% 27%

Independiente Santa Fe Draw Once Caldas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Santa Fe 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWDWDWWL

Once Caldas 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWLDWW

Head-to-head

Independiente Santa Fe 4–1–1 Once Caldas (6 last)

Once Caldas1-1Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe1-2Once Caldas
Independiente Santa Fe1-0Once Caldas
Once Caldas1-2Independiente Santa Fe
Once Caldas0-1Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe2-1Once Caldas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1548 · Once Caldas 1549

	Independiente Santa Fe	Draw	Once Caldas
Our model	43%	30%	26%
Market	44%	30%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Santa Fe	Once Caldas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.4	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	6.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.13
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.21
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.57 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +4’	2.10	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:22	2.13	3.21	3.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 4–1–1 Once Caldas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/01/26 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Santa Fe
02/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-2 HT 1-1	Once Caldas
17/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-0 HT 1-0	Once Caldas
06/06/25 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	1-2 HT 0-0	Independiente Santa Fe
16/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	0-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Santa Fe
09/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	2-1 HT 0-1	Once Caldas

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Once Caldas	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
2	America de Cali	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Deportivo Cali	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Independiente Medellin	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
5	Aguilas Doradas	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Deportes Tolima	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Llaneros	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Fortaleza CEIF	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Alianza	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Boyaca Chico	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Deportivo Pasto	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
14	Junior	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Independiente Santa Fe	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	Deportivo Pereira	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
16	Millonarios	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Internacional de Bogota	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
20	Cucuta Deportivo	1	0	0	1	1	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Santa Fe	Once Caldas
Aguilas Doradas	1-2 L	2-2 D
Junior	0-0 D	2-2 D
Internacional de Bogota	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Independiente Santa Fe

WDDWDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
24/07	Caracas Copa Sudamericana	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
28/05	Penarol Copa Libertadores	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/05	Platense Copa Libertadores	0-0	2-1	5	8	W
17/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
13/05	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
10/05	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
07/05	Corinthians Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
03/05	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-1	4	4	W

Once Caldas

DDDWDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	7	3	W
22/07	Envigado FC Colombia Cup	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
14/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	11	12	D
11/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
02/05	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
26/04	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	0	9	D
21/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
10/04	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
03/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
30/03	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Once Caldas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (43%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 43%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 27%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Once Caldas?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.32 · Once Caldas 0.98), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Once Caldas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.