Football · Colombia Primera A · 05/08, 01:15
Prediction: Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin
Team pages: Deportes Tolima · Independiente Medellin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Deportes Tolima1.34
Independiente Medellin1.21
1X2
Deportes Tolima
Draw
Independiente Medellin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Deportes Tolima
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Independiente Medellin
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportes Tolima
2–1–3
Independiente Medellin
(6 last)
- Independiente Medellin2-2Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima2-3Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin2-1Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima1-3Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin0-1Deportes Tolima
- Independiente Medellin0-1Deportes Tolima
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportes Tolima | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.4 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.5 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Tolima 2–1–3 Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Deportes Tolima |
| 28/09/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Independiente Medellin |
| 16/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Deportes Tolima |
| 05/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Independiente Medellin |
| 16/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportes Tolima |
| 22/09/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportes Tolima |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 1 | Deportes Tolima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Llaneros | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | America de Cali | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cali | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Fortaleza CEIF | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Alianza | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Boyaca Chico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Junior | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Independiente Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Millonarios | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pasto | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 | Internacional de Bogota | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Cucuta Deportivo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 29/07 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Universitario de Deportes Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Coquimbo Unido Copa Libertadores |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/07 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 02/06 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Itagui Leones Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 1 | D |
| 27/05 | Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Orsomarso Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 11/05 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Tolima win (38%). Probabilities: Deportes Tolima 38%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 32%.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Deportes Tolima 1.34 · Independiente Medellin 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.