Football · Colombia Primera A · 23/08, 03:15
Prediction: Junior vs Once Caldas
Team pages: Junior · Once Caldas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Junior1.59
Once Caldas1.1
1X2
Junior
Draw
Once Caldas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Junior
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Once Caldas
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Junior
2–2–2
Once Caldas
(6 last)
- Junior2-2Once Caldas
- Once Caldas0-1Junior
- Once Caldas2-1Junior
- Once Caldas2-2Junior
- Junior2-0Once Caldas
- Junior1-2Once Caldas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Junior 1500 · Once Caldas 1550
| Junior | Draw | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Once Caldas (rating 1500 vs 1550).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Junior | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.5 | 2.2 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 5.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Junior 2–2–2 Once Caldas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Once Caldas |
| 11/05/26 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Junior |
| 13/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Junior |
| 27/07/25 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Junior |
| 14/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Once Caldas |
| 02/12/24 Colombia Primera A | Junior | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Once Caldas |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Millonarios | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Independiente Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alianza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Cucuta Deportivo | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Junior | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Independiente Santa Fe | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Once Caldas (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Junior
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 30/07 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Cup |
2-1 | 3-3 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 26/07 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 09/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/05 | Palmeiras Copa Libertadores |
1-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | Sporting Cristal Copa Libertadores |
3-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Once Caldas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 03/08 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 30/07 | Envigado FC Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Envigado FC Colombia Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 12 | D |
| 11/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Junior vs Once Caldas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Junior win (47%). Probabilities: Junior 47%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 25%.
How many goals are expected in Junior vs Once Caldas?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Junior 1.59 · Once Caldas 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Junior vs Once Caldas?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.