Football · Colombia Primera A · 23/08, 03:15
Prediction: Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta Deportivo
Team pages: Independiente Medellin · Cucuta Deportivo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Independiente Medellin1.9
Cucuta Deportivo0.69
1X2
Independiente Medellin
Draw
Cucuta Deportivo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Medellin
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Cucuta Deportivo
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Medellin
5–1
Cucuta Deportivo
(6 last)
- Independiente Medellin2-1Cucuta Deportivo
- Cucuta Deportivo1-3Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin1-2Cucuta Deportivo
- Cucuta Deportivo0-1Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin4-1Cucuta Deportivo
- Independiente Medellin3-0Cucuta Deportivo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Medellin 1556 · Cucuta Deportivo 1447
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Cucuta Deportivo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 22% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1556 vs 1447).
- H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Medellin | Cucuta Deportivo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 1.2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin 5–0–1 Cucuta Deportivo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/26 Colombia Cup | Independiente Medellin | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Cucuta Deportivo |
| 10/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Cucuta Deportivo | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Independiente Medellin |
| 06/10/23 Colombia Cup | Independiente Medellin | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Cucuta Deportivo |
| 29/09/23 Colombia Cup | Cucuta Deportivo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 09/10/20 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Cucuta Deportivo |
| 11/10/19 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Cucuta Deportivo |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Independiente Medellin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Llaneros | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Aguilas Doradas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cali | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Millonarios | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Fortaleza CEIF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Independiente Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Alianza | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 17 | Cucuta Deportivo | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| 18 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Medellin | Cucuta Deportivo |
|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza CEIF | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Boyaca Chico | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Once Caldas | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| America de Cali | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Medellin (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 31/03 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Cucuta Deportivo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 08/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 11 | D |
| 27/07 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-3 | 1-5 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 02/04 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta Deportivo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Medellin win (66%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin 66%, draw 22%, Cucuta Deportivo 12%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta Deportivo?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Independiente Medellin 1.9 · Cucuta Deportivo 0.69), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta Deportivo?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.