Football · Colombia Primera A · 08/10, 03:20

Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportes Tolima

Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Deportes Tolima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.88

Deportes Tolima0.8

1X2

62% 24% 14%

Atletico Nacional Medellin Draw Deportes Tolima

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Nacional Medellin 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWLDW

Deportes Tolima 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWLLDD

Head-to-head

Atletico Nacional Medellin 4–1–1 Deportes Tolima (6 last)

Atletico Nacional Medellin3-1Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima0-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
Deportes Tolima1-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
Deportes Tolima0-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin4-3Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional Medellin2-0Deportes Tolima

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1592 vs 1486).
H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Deportes Tolima
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.9	2.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:43

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.58 → 1.59▲	Pinn 1.59
X	3.87 → 3.91▲	Pinn 3.91
2	5.35 → 5.44▲	Pinn 5.44

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:11 +6’	1.58	3.87	5.35
00:16 +27’	1.59▲	3.91▲	5.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 4–1–1 Deportes Tolima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	3-1 HT 0-0	Deportes Tolima
17/05/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
02/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
03/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
20/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	4-3 HT 4-2	Deportes Tolima
23/12/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2-0 HT 2-0	Deportes Tolima

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	11	7	3	1	22	6	24
2	Deportivo Cali	12	7	3	2	20	9	24
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	10	7	1	2	21	10	22
4	Millonarios	13	5	6	2	18	11	21
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	10	5	5	0	17	9	20
6	Independiente Medellin	11	6	2	3	19	15	20
7	Independiente Santa Fe	11	5	4	2	18	12	19
8	Deportes Tolima	11	5	3	3	15	13	18
9	Llaneros	11	4	2	5	14	14	14
10	Once Caldas	11	3	3	5	14	15	12
11	Internacional de Bogota	12	2	6	4	13	17	12
12	Cucuta Deportivo	11	3	3	5	11	19	12
13	Aguilas Doradas	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
14	Boyaca Chico	10	3	2	5	10	18	11
15	Alianza	12	3	2	7	12	24	11
16	Junior	10	2	3	5	15	17	9
17	Fortaleza CEIF	11	1	6	4	13	18	9
18	Deportivo Pereira	10	1	5	4	7	13	8
19	Deportivo Pasto	11	2	2	7	9	18	8
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	10	1	4	5	11	18	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Deportes Tolima
Llaneros	0-2 L	2-1 W
Internacional de Bogota	3-2 W	2-1 W
Alianza	5-1 W	2-1 W
Fortaleza CEIF	2-1 W	2-2 D
America de Cali	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Nacional Medellin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	7	10	W
25/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
17/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	9	3	W
13/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
30/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
27/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
23/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
10/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	13	7	L
02/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	3-0	3-0	4	3	W

Deportes Tolima

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	0	11	D
21/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
17/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
08/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
01/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
22/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
09/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
05/08	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
01/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportes Tolima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (62%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 62%, draw 24%, Deportes Tolima 14%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportes Tolima?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.88 · Deportes Tolima 0.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportes Tolima?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.