Football · Colombia Primera A · 19/10, 01:15
Prediction: Llaneros vs Independiente Santa Fe
Team pages: Llaneros · Independiente Santa Fe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Llaneros1.07
Independiente Santa Fe1.13
1X2
Llaneros
Draw
Independiente Santa Fe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Llaneros
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Independiente Santa Fe
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Llaneros
3–2
Independiente Santa Fe
(5 last)
- Independiente Santa Fe0-1Llaneros
- Independiente Santa Fe1-3Llaneros
- Llaneros0-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Llaneros3-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe2-0Llaneros
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Llaneros 1447 · Independiente Santa Fe 1534
| Llaneros | Draw | Independiente Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 32% | 36% |
| Market | 33% | 31% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1447 vs 1534).
- H2H favours Llaneros: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Llaneros | Independiente Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.3 | 2.1 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.6 | 5.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Llaneros 3–0–2 Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Llaneros |
| 12/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Llaneros |
| 01/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Llaneros | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 06/08/14 Colombia Cup | Llaneros | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 03/07/14 Colombia Cup | Independiente Santa Fe | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Llaneros |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta Deportivo | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 11 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Llaneros | Independiente Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| America de Cali | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Deportes Tolima | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Independiente Medellin | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Millonarios | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Llaneros
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/10 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 21/09 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/09 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 28/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 11 | W |
| 19/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 29/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 23/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Llaneros vs Independiente Santa Fe?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente Santa Fe win (36%). Probabilities: Llaneros 33%, draw 32%, Independiente Santa Fe 36%.
How many goals are expected in Llaneros vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Llaneros 1.07 · Independiente Santa Fe 1.13), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Llaneros vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.