Football · Colombia Primera A · 18/10, 21:00
Prediction: Aguilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Team pages: Aguilas Doradas · Deportes Tolima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Aguilas Doradas1.2
Deportes Tolima1.29
1X2
Aguilas Doradas
Draw
Deportes Tolima
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Aguilas Doradas
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Deportes Tolima
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aguilas Doradas
2–4
Deportes Tolima
(6 last)
- Deportes Tolima4-1Aguilas Doradas
- Aguilas Doradas1-2Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima1-2Aguilas Doradas
- Aguilas Doradas0-1Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima2-1Aguilas Doradas
- Deportes Tolima0-1Aguilas Doradas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aguilas Doradas 1465 · Deportes Tolima 1503
| Aguilas Doradas | Draw | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aguilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.6 | 2.4 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.6 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas Doradas 2–0–4 Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Aguilas Doradas |
| 14/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Aguilas Doradas | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Deportes Tolima |
| 25/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Aguilas Doradas |
| 03/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Aguilas Doradas | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportes Tolima |
| 13/04/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Aguilas Doradas |
| 03/12/23 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aguilas Doradas |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta Deportivo | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 11 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aguilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Bucaramanga | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Jaguares de Cordoba | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| America de Cali | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Boyaca Chico | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportes Tolima (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aguilas Doradas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 03/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 28/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 18/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 13/09 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 9 | D |
| 30/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 15 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 10 | D |
Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 09/10 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 28/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 11 | D |
| 21/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 17/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aguilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportes Tolima win (37%). Probabilities: Aguilas Doradas 33%, draw 30%, Deportes Tolima 37%.
How many goals are expected in Aguilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Aguilas Doradas 1.2 · Deportes Tolima 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Aguilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.