Football · Colombia Primera A · 18/10, 01:05

Prediction: Millonarios vs Jaguares de Cordoba

Team pages: Millonarios · Jaguares de Cordoba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Millonarios2.28

Jaguares de Cordoba0.55

1X2

76% 17% 7%

Millonarios Draw Jaguares de Cordoba

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Millonarios 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWWDDD

Jaguares de Cordoba 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDDDLLLW

Head-to-head

Millonarios 2–1–3 Jaguares de Cordoba (6 last)

Jaguares de Cordoba1-0Millonarios
Millonarios0-0Jaguares de Cordoba
Jaguares de Cordoba2-1Millonarios
Jaguares de Cordoba2-0Millonarios
Millonarios2-1Jaguares de Cordoba
Millonarios2-0Jaguares de Cordoba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Millonarios 1537 · Jaguares de Cordoba 1485

	Millonarios	Draw	Jaguares de Cordoba
Our model	76%	18%	7%
Market	76%	17%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Millonarios (rating 1537 vs 1485).
H2H favours Jaguares de Cordoba: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Millonarios	Jaguares de Cordoba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	6.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.50

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.88

2 (+1.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:04 +4’	1.20	5.50	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Millonarios 2–1–3 Jaguares de Cordoba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	1-0 HT 0-0	Millonarios
26/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	0-0 HT 0-0	Jaguares de Cordoba
11/03/24 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	2-1 HT 1-0	Millonarios
14/08/23 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	2-0 HT 1-0	Millonarios
19/02/23 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	2-1 HT 0-0	Jaguares de Cordoba
21/08/22 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	2-0 HT 1-0	Jaguares de Cordoba

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	13	8	3	2	25	9	27
2	Deportivo Cali	13	7	4	2	20	9	25
3	Atletico Bucaramanga	12	6	6	0	21	11	24
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
5	Independiente Medellin	13	7	2	4	21	17	23
6	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19	12	22
7	Independiente Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19	12	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	5	5	4	17	16	20
9	Cucuta Deportivo	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
10	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16	16	16
11	Aguilas Doradas	13	3	7	3	17	18	16
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	15	17	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	16	20	14
14	Boyaca Chico	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14	26	12
16	Junior	13	2	5	6	19	23	11
17	Fortaleza CEIF	13	1	8	4	14	19	11
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	12	2	4	6	14	22	10
19	Deportivo Pereira	13	1	7	5	8	18	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	9	18	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Millonarios	Jaguares de Cordoba
Fortaleza CEIF	1-1 D	2-2 D
Independiente Medellin	2-2 D	1-2 L
Boyaca Chico	3-0 W	1-0 W
Internacional de Bogota	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Millonarios (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Millonarios

WDLDDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
30/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
25/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
19/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
14/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
11/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
07/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
03/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-3	8	8	L
31/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
28/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	7	W

Jaguares de Cordoba

LDWDDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-2	1	6	W
03/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	5	9	L
27/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
23/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
06/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-3	5	6	D
29/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	3	7	D
21/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
10/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
06/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Millonarios vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Millonarios win (76%). Probabilities: Millonarios 76%, draw 17%, Jaguares de Cordoba 7%.

How many goals are expected in Millonarios vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Millonarios 2.28 · Jaguares de Cordoba 0.55), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Millonarios vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.