Football · Colombia Primera A · 18/10, 03:10

Prediction: Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas

Team pages: Independiente Medellin · Once Caldas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Independiente Medellin1.67

Once Caldas1.08

1X2

50% 27% 23%

Independiente Medellin Draw Once Caldas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Medellin 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLDLW

Once Caldas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWLLDW

Head-to-head

Independiente Medellin 3–2–1 Once Caldas (6 last)

Once Caldas1-1Independiente Medellin
Once Caldas1-5Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin2-0Once Caldas
Once Caldas0-2Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin1-2Once Caldas
Once Caldas2-2Independiente Medellin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Medellin 1532 · Once Caldas 1467

	Independiente Medellin	Draw	Once Caldas
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1532 vs 1467).
H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Medellin	Once Caldas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	5.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +15’	1.85	3.30	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin 3–2–1 Once Caldas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Medellin
14/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	1-5 HT 1-2	Independiente Medellin
20/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-0 HT 2-0	Once Caldas
28/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	0-2 HT 0-1	Independiente Medellin
17/03/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-2 HT 1-0	Once Caldas
01/10/23 Colombia Primera A	Once Caldas	2-2 HT 0-0	Independiente Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	13	8	3	2	25	9	27
2	Deportivo Cali	13	7	4	2	20	9	25
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	11	7	2	2	21	10	23
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	11	6	5	0	20	10	23
5	Independiente Medellin	13	7	2	4	21	17	23
6	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19	12	22
7	Independiente Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19	12	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	5	5	4	17	16	20
9	Cucuta Deportivo	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
10	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16	16	16
11	Aguilas Doradas	12	3	6	3	16	17	15
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	15	17	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	16	20	14
14	Boyaca Chico	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14	26	12
16	Fortaleza CEIF	13	1	8	4	14	19	11
17	Junior	12	2	4	6	18	22	10
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	12	2	4	6	14	22	10
19	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	9	18	9
20	Deportivo Pereira	12	1	6	5	7	17	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Medellin	Once Caldas
Junior	0-2 L	1-1 D
Jaguares de Cordoba	2-1 W	1-1 D
Atletico Bucaramanga	2-2 D	1-3 L
Boyaca Chico	1-2 L	0-2 L
Llaneros	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Medellin (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Medellin

LWWLDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
06/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
30/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
27/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
23/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
30/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
23/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	2	L

Once Caldas

DDWLLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
04/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
20/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
17/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
14/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
05/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	8	7	L
02/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
24/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	11	D
10/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Medellin win (50%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin 50%, draw 27%, Once Caldas 23%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Independiente Medellin 1.67 · Once Caldas 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.