Football · Colombia Primera A · 17/10, 22:00
Prediction: Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin
Team pages: Boyaca Chico · Atletico Nacional Medellin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Boyaca Chico0.69
Atletico Nacional Medellin1.77
1X2
Boyaca Chico
Draw
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Boyaca Chico
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Atletico Nacional Medellin
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boyaca Chico
1–1–4
Atletico Nacional Medellin
(6 last)
- Atletico Nacional Medellin4-0Boyaca Chico
- Boyaca Chico1-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin4-1Boyaca Chico
- Atletico Nacional Medellin6-2Boyaca Chico
- Boyaca Chico2-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Boyaca Chico1-3Atletico Nacional Medellin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boyaca Chico 1474 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1577
| Boyaca Chico | Draw | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 25% | 62% |
| Market | 13% | 24% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1474 vs 1577).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boyaca Chico | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4 | 3.5 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boyaca Chico 1–1–4 Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Boyaca Chico |
| 06/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 17/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Boyaca Chico |
| 29/09/24 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 6-2 HT 4-1 | Boyaca Chico |
| 17/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 22/10/23 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Cucuta Deportivo | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza CEIF | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 10 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 9 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boyaca Chico | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Millonarios | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Alianza | 1-2 L | 5-1 W |
| Aguilas Doradas | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Fortaleza CEIF | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boyaca Chico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 26/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 01/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 25/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 17/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (63%). Probabilities: Boyaca Chico 13%, draw 24%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 63%.
How many goals are expected in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Boyaca Chico 0.69 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.77), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.