Football · Colombia Primera A · 13/09, 01:10

Prediction: Boyaca Chico vs Independiente Medellin

Team pages: Boyaca Chico · Independiente Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Boyaca Chico0.84

Independiente Medellin1.6

1X2

18% 27% 54%

Boyaca Chico Draw Independiente Medellin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Boyaca Chico 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLDDW

Independiente Medellin 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Boyaca Chico 1–5 Independiente Medellin (6 last)

Independiente Medellin2-0Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico2-0Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin3-0Boyaca Chico
Independiente Medellin3-0Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico1-4Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin1-0Boyaca Chico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boyaca Chico 1470 · Independiente Medellin 1558

	Boyaca Chico	Draw	Independiente Medellin
Our model	18%	27%	54%
Market	18%	27%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1470 vs 1558).
H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boyaca Chico	Independiente Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.40

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:48 +5’	5.00	3.40	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boyaca Chico 1–0–5 Independiente Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-0 HT 2-0	Boyaca Chico
20/07/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	2-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Medellin
03/02/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	3-0 HT 0-0	Boyaca Chico
26/10/24 Colombia Cup	Independiente Medellin	3-0 HT 0-0	Boyaca Chico
23/10/24 Colombia Cup	Boyaca Chico	1-4 HT 1-2	Independiente Medellin
01/08/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-0 HT 1-0	Boyaca Chico

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	6	2	0	20	4	20
2	Independiente Medellin	6	5	0	1	12	6	15
3	Deportes Tolima	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
5	Millonarios	8	3	3	2	9	6	12
6	Llaneros	7	3	2	2	8	7	11
7	Independiente Santa Fe	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
8	Aguilas Doradas	6	2	4	0	10	8	10
9	Atletico Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
10	Once Caldas	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
11	Cucuta Deportivo	8	2	3	3	8	13	9
12	Deportivo Cali	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
13	Internacional de Bogota	8	1	5	2	8	10	8
14	Fortaleza CEIF	8	1	4	3	8	10	7
15	Deportivo Pereira	6	1	3	2	3	6	6
16	Jaguares de Cordoba	7	1	3	3	7	12	6
17	Boyaca Chico	6	1	2	3	4	12	5
18	Junior	6	0	3	3	8	12	3
19	Deportivo Pasto	8	0	2	6	7	15	2
20	Alianza	7	0	2	5	5	15	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boyaca Chico	Independiente Medellin
Aguilas Doradas	2-2 D	1-2 L
Fortaleza CEIF	0-0 D	1-0 W
Llaneros	3-0 W	2-1 W
Deportivo Cali	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Boyaca Chico (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boyaca Chico

WLLWLLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
30/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
26/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
21/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	11	10	L
08/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	0	2	L
03/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-7	2	3	L
02/05	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
27/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
23/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/04	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Independiente Medellin

WWWLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
30/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
23/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
05/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-2	2	5	W
02/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/07	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	2-2	3-2	4	7	W
03/05	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	10	8	L
26/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/04	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/04	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boyaca Chico vs Independiente Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente Medellin win (54%). Probabilities: Boyaca Chico 18%, draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 54%.

How many goals are expected in Boyaca Chico vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Boyaca Chico 0.84 · Independiente Medellin 1.6), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Boyaca Chico vs Independiente Medellin?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.