Football · Colombia Primera A · 11/10, 23:05
Prediction: Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportes Tolima
Team pages: Jaguares de Cordoba · Deportes Tolima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Jaguares de Cordoba0.87
Deportes Tolima1.82
1X2
Jaguares de Cordoba
Draw
Deportes Tolima
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Jaguares de Cordoba
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Deportes Tolima
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Jaguares de Cordoba
0–2–4
Deportes Tolima
(6 last)
- Deportes Tolima3-1Jaguares de Cordoba
- Jaguares de Cordoba0-2Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima2-0Jaguares de Cordoba
- Jaguares de Cordoba0-1Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima1-1Jaguares de Cordoba
- Deportes Tolima2-2Jaguares de Cordoba
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jaguares de Cordoba 1436 · Deportes Tolima 1499
| Jaguares de Cordoba | Draw | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Market | 17% | 24% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Tolima (rating 1436 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Jaguares de Cordoba | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 2.6 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jaguares de Cordoba 0–2–4 Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 20/08/24 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Deportes Tolima |
| 16/02/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 07/10/23 Colombia Primera A | Jaguares de Cordoba | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportes Tolima |
| 26/04/23 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
| 06/08/22 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Jaguares de Cordoba |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Cucuta Deportivo | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza CEIF | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 10 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 9 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Jaguares de Cordoba | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza CEIF | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| America de Cali | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Boyaca Chico | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Once Caldas | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Internacional de Bogota | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 4 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jaguares de Cordoba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 27/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/09 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 21/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 10/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 28/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 11 | D |
| 21/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 17/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportes Tolima?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportes Tolima win (59%). Probabilities: Jaguares de Cordoba 17%, draw 24%, Deportes Tolima 59%.
How many goals are expected in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportes Tolima?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Jaguares de Cordoba 0.87 · Deportes Tolima 1.82), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportes Tolima?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.