Football · Colombia Primera A · 21/10, 03:30
Prediction: Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Nacional Medellin
Team pages: Cucuta Deportivo · Atletico Nacional Medellin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Cucuta Deportivo0.84
Atletico Nacional Medellin1.69
1X2
Cucuta Deportivo
Draw
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cucuta Deportivo
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Atletico Nacional Medellin
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cucuta Deportivo
0–1–5
Atletico Nacional Medellin
(6 last)
- Atletico Nacional Medellin0-0Cucuta Deportivo
- Cucuta Deportivo0-3Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin1-0Cucuta Deportivo
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-0Cucuta Deportivo
- Cucuta Deportivo0-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-1Cucuta Deportivo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cucuta Deportivo 1514 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1575
| Cucuta Deportivo | Draw | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 26% | 56% |
| Market | 18% | 24% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1514 vs 1575).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cucuta Deportivo | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 2.8 | 3.5 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0.8 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cucuta Deportivo 0–1–5 Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cucuta Deportivo |
| 05/08/25 Colombia Cup | Cucuta Deportivo | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 30/07/25 Colombia Cup | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cucuta Deportivo |
| 16/11/20 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-0 | Cucuta Deportivo |
| 27/11/19 Colombia Primera A | Cucuta Deportivo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 10/11/19 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Cucuta Deportivo |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta Deportivo | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 11 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cucuta Deportivo | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Llaneros | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Cali | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Millonarios | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportes Tolima | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Alianza | 1-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Internacional de Bogota | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cucuta Deportivo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 04/10 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 27/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 20/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 14/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 13 | D |
| 01/09 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 26/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 23/08 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 20/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 01/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 25/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 17/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (57%). Probabilities: Cucuta Deportivo 18%, draw 25%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 57%.
How many goals are expected in Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Cucuta Deportivo 0.84 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.69), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.