Football · Colombia Primera A · 21/10, 03:30
Prediction: Millonarios vs Once Caldas
Team pages: Millonarios · Once Caldas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Millonarios1.59
Once Caldas0.83
1X2
Millonarios
Draw
Once Caldas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Millonarios
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Once Caldas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Millonarios
1–4–1
Once Caldas
(6 last)
- Once Caldas1-4Millonarios
- Millonarios0-0Once Caldas
- Millonarios2-2Once Caldas
- Once Caldas0-0Millonarios
- Once Caldas2-2Millonarios
- Once Caldas1-0Millonarios
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Millonarios 1566 · Once Caldas 1498
| Millonarios | Draw | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Millonarios (rating 1566 vs 1498).
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Millonarios | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Millonarios 1–4–1 Once Caldas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Millonarios |
| 30/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Once Caldas |
| 12/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Once Caldas |
| 09/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Millonarios |
| 12/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Millonarios |
| 06/03/25 Copa Sudamericana | Once Caldas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Millonarios |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 23 | 13 | 25 |
| 5 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 24 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 23 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
| 10 | Cucuta Deportivo | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 15 | Boyaca Chico | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 12 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 11 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| 19 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Millonarios | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza CEIF | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Independiente Medellin | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Boyaca Chico | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Cali | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Internacional de Bogota | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Millonarios
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 09/10 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 30/09 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 25/09 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 10 | D |
| 07/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 03/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 31/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
Once Caldas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/10 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 17/09 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 02/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 11 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Millonarios vs Once Caldas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Millonarios win (55%). Probabilities: Millonarios 55%, draw 26%, Once Caldas 19%.
How many goals are expected in Millonarios vs Once Caldas?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Millonarios 1.59 · Once Caldas 0.83), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Millonarios vs Once Caldas?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.