Football · Colombia Primera A · 20/10, 23:30

Prediction: Deportivo Pereira vs Boyaca Chico

Team pages: Deportivo Pereira · Boyaca Chico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Deportivo Pereira1.25

Boyaca Chico1.01

1X2

41% 31% 29%

Deportivo Pereira Draw Boyaca Chico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Pereira 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDLLDD

Boyaca Chico 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWDLL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Pereira 2–3–1 Boyaca Chico (6 last)

Boyaca Chico1-0Deportivo Pereira
Boyaca Chico1-1Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira1-1Boyaca Chico
Deportivo Pereira1-0Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico1-2Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira1-1Boyaca Chico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Pereira 1437 · Boyaca Chico 1473

	Deportivo Pereira	Draw	Boyaca Chico
Our model	40%	31%	28%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Pereira: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Pereira	Boyaca Chico
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.4	2.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.5	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.14
2	3.10 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.48 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +7’	2.30	3.10	3.10
03:17 +4’	2.30	3.10	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:13 +22’	2.20	3.05	3.45
23:17 +1’	2.20	3.08▲	3.50▲
00:10 +8’	2.20	3.12▲	3.49▼
02:09 +13’	2.19▼	3.14▲	3.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pereira 2–3–1 Boyaca Chico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pereira
22/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Pereira
06/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pereira	1-1 HT 1-0	Boyaca Chico
07/08/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pereira	1-0 HT 0-0	Boyaca Chico
05/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Pereira
06/08/23 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pereira	1-1 HT 0-0	Boyaca Chico

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	13	8	3	2	25	9	27
2	Atletico Nacional Medellin	12	8	2	2	25	11	26
3	Deportivo Cali	13	7	4	2	20	9	25
4	Millonarios	15	6	7	2	23	13	25
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	12	6	6	0	21	11	24
6	Independiente Medellin	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
7	Independiente Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19	12	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	5	5	4	17	16	20
9	Once Caldas	14	5	4	5	18	16	19
10	Cucuta Deportivo	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
11	Aguilas Doradas	13	3	7	3	17	18	16
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	15	17	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	16	20	14
14	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14	26	12
15	Boyaca Chico	13	3	3	7	11	23	12
16	Junior	13	2	5	6	19	23	11
17	Fortaleza CEIF	13	1	8	4	14	19	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	1	7	5	8	18	10
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	13	2	4	7	15	26	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	9	18	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Pereira	Boyaca Chico
Cucuta Deportivo	0-4 L	0-1 L
Aguilas Doradas	2-2 D	2-2 D
Millonarios	1-1 D	0-3 L
Independiente Medellin	0-3 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Pasto	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Boyaca Chico (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Pereira

WLDLDDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
10/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-4	0	10	L
29/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	7	11	L
26/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	5	10	D
18/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	5	8	D
13/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
07/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
04/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
01/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	3	6	W

Boyaca Chico

DDWWLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-4	5	5	L
12/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	11	5	L
03/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	0	1	W
19/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
16/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	9	4	L
13/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
05/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
30/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
26/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pereira vs Boyaca Chico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Pereira win (41%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pereira 41%, draw 31%, Boyaca Chico 29%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pereira vs Boyaca Chico?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Deportivo Pereira 1.25 · Boyaca Chico 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pereira vs Boyaca Chico?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.