Football · Colombia Primera A · 21/10, 01:00

Prediction: Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza CEIF

Team pages: Internacional de Bogota · Fortaleza CEIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Internacional de Bogota1.55

Fortaleza CEIF1.21

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Internacional de Bogota Draw Fortaleza CEIF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional de Bogota 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWLLDDD

Fortaleza CEIF 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDLDDD

Head-to-head

Internacional de Bogota 0–1–0 Fortaleza CEIF (1 last)

Fortaleza CEIF1-1Internacional de Bogota

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional de Bogota 1512 · Fortaleza CEIF 1468

	Internacional de Bogota	Draw	Fortaleza CEIF
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional de Bogota (rating 1512 vs 1468).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional de Bogota	Fortaleza CEIF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 14:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.48 ★
2	4.33 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +16’	1.80	3.30	4.33
14:49 +3’	1.91▲	3.25▼	3.90▼
03:14 +7’	2.00▲	3.25	3.90
14:20 +5’	2.20▲	3.20▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +736’	1.88	3.68	3.82
13:48 +64’	2.04▲	3.56▼	3.42▼
13:10 +75’	2.18▲	3.48▼	3.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional de Bogota 0–1–0 Fortaleza CEIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Fortaleza CEIF	1-1 HT 1-1	Internacional de Bogota

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	13	8	3	2	25	9	27
2	Atletico Nacional Medellin	12	8	2	2	25	11	26
3	Deportivo Cali	13	7	4	2	20	9	25
4	Millonarios	15	6	7	2	23	13	25
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	12	6	6	0	21	11	24
6	Independiente Medellin	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
7	Independiente Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19	12	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	5	5	4	17	16	20
9	Once Caldas	14	5	4	5	18	16	19
10	Cucuta Deportivo	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
11	Aguilas Doradas	13	3	7	3	17	18	16
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	15	17	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	16	20	14
14	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14	26	12
15	Boyaca Chico	13	3	3	7	11	23	12
16	Junior	13	2	5	6	19	23	11
17	Fortaleza CEIF	13	1	8	4	14	19	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	1	7	5	8	18	10
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	13	2	4	7	15	26	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	9	18	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional de Bogota	Fortaleza CEIF
Junior	2-2 D	1-4 L
Once Caldas	1-1 D	1-2 L
Atletico Nacional Medellin	2-3 L	1-2 L
Millonarios	0-0 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Pasto	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional de Bogota (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional de Bogota

DDDDWLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
04/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
20/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
17/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
12/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
06/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	3	9	D
31/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
28/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
24/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	1	D

Fortaleza CEIF

WLDLDDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
04/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
28/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	8	11	D
20/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
12/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
06/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
02/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	0	3	L
26/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
08/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza CEIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional de Bogota win (43%). Probabilities: Internacional de Bogota 43%, draw 29%, Fortaleza CEIF 28%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza CEIF?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Internacional de Bogota 1.55 · Fortaleza CEIF 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza CEIF?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.