Football · Colombia Primera A · 20/10, 03:05
Prediction: Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza
Team pages: Deportivo Pasto · Alianza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
Deportivo Pasto1.49
Alianza0.78
1X2
Deportivo Pasto
Draw
Alianza
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Pasto
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Alianza
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Pasto
1–3–1
Alianza
(5 last)
- Alianza0-0Deportivo Pasto
- Deportivo Pasto3-3Alianza
- Alianza1-0Deportivo Pasto
- Deportivo Pasto1-0Alianza
- Alianza1-1Deportivo Pasto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Pasto 1453 · Alianza 1455
| Deportivo Pasto | Draw | Alianza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Market | 54% | 28% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Pasto | Alianza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 1 | 6.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pasto 1–3–1 Alianza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 05/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Alianza |
| 15/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 30/09/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza |
| 16/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Alianza | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Deportivo Pasto |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta Deportivo | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 11 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Pasto | Alianza |
|---|---|---|
| Boyaca Chico | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| America de Cali | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Cucuta Deportivo | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Pereira | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Cali | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 13 | D |
| 01/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Alianza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 11 | D |
| 03/10 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 27/09 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 03/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Pasto win (53%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 53%, draw 28%, Alianza 19%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Deportivo Pasto 1.49 · Alianza 0.78), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.