Football · Colombia Primera A · 26/10, 00:10

Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Medellin

Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Independiente Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.78

Independiente Medellin1.14

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Atletico Nacional Medellin Draw Independiente Medellin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Nacional Medellin 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWDWL

Independiente Medellin 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLDLWL

Head-to-head

Atletico Nacional Medellin 4–2–0 Independiente Medellin (6 last)

Atletico Nacional Medellin3-2Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin2-3Atletico Nacional Medellin
Independiente Medellin0-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin0-0Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin0-0Atletico Nacional Medellin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1607 · Independiente Medellin 1465

	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Draw	Independiente Medellin
Our model	51%	25%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1607 vs 1465).
H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Independiente Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.3	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	5.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.83▲	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +8’	1.80	3.40	4.10
07:11 +8’	1.83▲	3.60▲	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 4–2–0 Independiente Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/10/26 Colombia Cup	Atletico Nacional Medellin	3-2 HT 2-0	Independiente Medellin
12/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-3 HT 2-2	Atletico Nacional Medellin
18/12/25 Colombia Cup	Independiente Medellin	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
13/12/25 Colombia Cup	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Medellin
05/12/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2-1 HT 1-0	Independiente Medellin
23/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Cali	15	8	5	2	23	9	29
2	America de Cali	14	8	4	2	26	10	28
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	13	8	2	3	25	12	26
4	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	13	6	7	0	22	12	25
6	Independiente Santa Fe	14	7	4	3	21	14	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
8	Cucuta Deportivo	14	6	3	5	17	19	21
9	Once Caldas	15	5	5	5	19	17	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	5	5	5	18	18	20
11	Aguilas Doradas	14	4	7	3	19	19	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	3	8	4	18	21	17
13	Llaneros	15	5	2	8	16	20	17
14	Alianza	14	4	3	7	15	26	15
15	Deportivo Pereira	14	2	7	5	10	18	13
16	Junior	14	2	6	6	19	23	12
17	Boyaca Chico	14	3	3	8	11	25	12
18	Fortaleza CEIF	14	1	8	5	15	21	11
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	14	2	4	8	16	28	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	2	3	8	9	19	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Independiente Medellin
Boyaca Chico	4-1 W	1-2 L
Junior	3-1 W	0-2 L
Millonarios	1-1 D	2-2 D
Llaneros	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Nacional Medellin

WWWWLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
17/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
09/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
01/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	7	10	W
25/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
17/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	9	3	W
13/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
30/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
27/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	3	8	W

Independiente Medellin

WWLDWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
12/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
06/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
30/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
27/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
23/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
30/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (51%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 51%, draw 26%, Independiente Medellin 23%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.78 · Independiente Medellin 1.14), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Independiente Medellin?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.