Football · Colombia Primera A · 01/11, 00:00

Prediction: Llaneros vs Junior

Team pages: Llaneros · Junior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Llaneros1.35

Junior1.28

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Llaneros Draw Junior

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Llaneros 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWLL

Junior 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDDDWD

Head-to-head

Llaneros 0–2–3 Junior (5 last)

Junior2-0Llaneros
Junior4-0Llaneros
Llaneros0-1Junior
Junior1-1Llaneros
Llaneros1-1Junior

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Llaneros 1418 · Junior 1507

	Llaneros	Draw	Junior
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Junior (rating 1418 vs 1507).
H2H favours Junior: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Llaneros	Junior
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.73 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:27 +17’	2.50	3.10	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +7’	2.71	3.04	2.68
03:13 +11’	2.73▲	3.07▲	2.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Llaneros 0–2–3 Junior

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Junior	2-0 HT 2-0	Llaneros
30/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Junior	4-0 HT 2-0	Llaneros
17/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Llaneros	0-1 HT 0-1	Junior
18/09/14 Colombia Cup	Junior	1-1 HT 0-0	Llaneros
10/09/14 Colombia Cup	Llaneros	1-1 HT 0-0	Junior

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	15	10	2	3	30	13	32
2	America de Cali	15	9	4	2	29	11	31
3	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	24	10	30
4	Independiente Santa Fe	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
5	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
6	Atletico Bucaramanga	15	6	7	2	23	15	25
7	Independiente Medellin	15	7	2	6	22	21	23
8	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
9	Once Caldas	16	5	6	5	20	18	21
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Alianza	15	5	3	7	16	26	18
13	Internacional de Bogota	16	3	8	5	18	22	17
14	Llaneros	16	5	2	9	16	21	17
15	Junior	16	3	7	6	21	24	16
16	Boyaca Chico	16	4	4	8	13	26	16
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	2	8	5	11	19	14
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	15	3	4	8	17	28	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	15	1	9	5	16	22	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	15	3	3	9	10	22	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Llaneros	Junior
Deportivo Cali	0-3 L	0-0 D
Atletico Nacional Medellin	2-0 W	1-3 L
Internacional de Bogota	2-3 L	2-2 D
Independiente Medellin	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Junior (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Llaneros

LLLWLLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	8	10	L
22/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
19/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
10/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
05/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-2	7	5	L
27/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-2	3	8	L
21/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	2-2	2-3	6	4	L
08/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
30/08	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	5	8	L

Junior

LWWLLDDDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
24/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
19/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
14/10	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
11/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
05/10	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-3	7	4	L
01/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-3	5	10	L
27/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
20/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-1	1	5	W
13/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Llaneros vs Junior?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Llaneros win (37%). Probabilities: Llaneros 37%, draw 29%, Junior 34%.

How many goals are expected in Llaneros vs Junior?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Llaneros 1.35 · Junior 1.28), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Llaneros vs Junior?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.