Football · Coppa Italia · 14/08, 20:45

Prediction: Monza vs Avellino

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.72Total
Monza2.46
Avellino1.26
1X2
62% 21% 16%
Monza Draw Avellino
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Monza 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
LDDWWLWWLD
Avellino 6-1-3 (W-D-L)
WLWLWWWWLD
Head-to-head
Monza 1–1 Avellino (2 last)
  • Monza2-1Avellino
  • Avellino2-1Monza
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monza 1510 · Avellino 1541
MonzaDrawAvellino
Our model63%20%17%
Market61%23%16%
Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

  • High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

MonzaAvellino
Goals for / against (FT)2 / 1.94.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.71.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/50/30%40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)2.4 / 5.12 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.7 / 01.4 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Monza 101 Avellino

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DateHomeScoreAway
08/02/26
Italy Serie B
Monza2-1
HT 0-0
Avellino
12/09/25
Italy Serie B
Avellino2-1
HT 1-0
Monza

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentMonzaAvellino
Catanzaro 0-2 L 0-3 L
Empoli 2-2 D 0-1 L
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 1 L 0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Monza (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monza

LDDWWLWWLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/08 Padova
Europe Friendlies
0-0 3-3 00 D
30/07 Aris Salonika
Europe Friendlies
0-2 1-3 60 L
24/07 Galatasaray
Europe Friendlies
1-0 2-0 61 W
18/07 Pro Vercelli
Club Friendly List
2-1 4-3 W
29/05 Catanzaro
Italy Serie B
0-1 0-2 36 L
24/05 Catanzaro
Italy Serie B
0-0 2-0 85 W
19/05 Juve Stabia
Italy Serie B
0-0 2-1 66 W
16/05 Juve Stabia
Italy Serie B
0-0 2-2 35 D
08/05 Empoli
Italy Serie B
1-1 2-2 75 D
01/05 Mantova
Italy Serie B
0-2 2-3 75 L

Avellino

WLWLWWWWLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
08/08 Torino
Europe Friendlies
0-1 1-1 50 D
01/08 Lazio
Europe Friendlies
1-3 3-6 50 L
28/07 Real Forio 2014
Europe Friendlies
0-1 3-1 110 W
26/07 Sambenedettese
Europe Friendlies
1-0 5-0 30 W
22/07 Scafatese
Club Friendly List
2-1 3-1 W
19/07 Castel Di Sangro
Club Friendly List
10-0 24-0 W
12/05 Catanzaro
Italy Serie B
0-1 0-3 51 L
08/05 Modena
Italy Serie B
1-0 1-0 62 W
01/05 Empoli
Italy Serie B
0-0 0-1 25 L
24/04 Bari
Italy Serie B
0-0 2-0 84 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monza vs Avellino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monza win (62%). Probabilities: Monza 62%, draw 21%, Avellino 16%.

How many goals are expected in Monza vs Avellino?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Monza 2.46 · Avellino 1.26), with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Monza vs Avellino?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.