Football · Coppa Italia · 15/08, 20:45
Prediction: Venezia vs Modena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.32Total
Venezia2.11
Modena1.21
1X2
Venezia
Draw
Modena
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Venezia
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Modena
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Venezia
3–2–1
Modena
(6 last)
- Venezia0-2Modena
- Modena1-2Venezia
- Venezia2-2Modena
- Modena1-3Venezia
- Venezia5-0Modena
- Modena2-2Venezia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Venezia 1568 · Modena 1519
| Venezia | Draw | Modena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Venezia (rating 1568 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Venezia: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Venezia | Modena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.1 | 2.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 1.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5 | 2.3 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Venezia 3–2–1 Modena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/26 Italy Serie B | Venezia | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Modena |
| 20/12/25 Italy Serie B | Modena | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Venezia |
| 18/02/24 Italy Serie B | Venezia | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Modena |
| 30/09/23 Italy Serie B | Modena | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Venezia |
| 01/05/23 Italy Serie B | Venezia | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Modena |
| 08/12/22 Italy Serie B | Modena | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Venezia |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Venezia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Brest Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | St Etienne Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/07 | Galatasaray Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/07 | Vis Pesaro Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 19/07 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | Palermo Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Spezia Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Empoli Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Bari Italy Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Virtus Entella Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
Modena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Trento Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Cagliari Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 22/07 | Asd Nago-Torbole Club Friendly List |
8-0 | 10-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/07 | Usd Alense Club Friendly List |
8-0 | 13-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/05 | Juve Stabia Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Avellino Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 24/04 | Monza Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Frosinone Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 14/04 | Catanzaro Italy Serie B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Venezia vs Modena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Venezia win (57%). Probabilities: Venezia 57%, draw 23%, Modena 20%.
How many goals are expected in Venezia vs Modena?
The model expects 3.32 goals (Venezia 2.11 · Modena 1.21), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Modena?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.