Prediction: Nacional Potosi vs Club Aurora
Expected goals: 2.98 (Nacional Potosi 1.91 · Club Aurora 1.08). The model gives 56% home, 23% draw, 21% away. Under 3.25 goals (54%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Nacional Potosi sits at 3-2-5 (W-D-L), while Club Aurora arrives on a 4-5-1 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Nacional Potosi and 2 for Club Aurora, with 1 draw.
| Nacional Potosi | Draw | Club Aurora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 57% | 22% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Aurora (rating 1490 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Nacional Potosi: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional Potosi | Club Aurora | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.9 | 1.4 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.6 | 6.2 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Potosi 3–1–2 Club Aurora
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/25 Bolivia Primera Division | Club Aurora | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Nacional Potosi |
| 17/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division | Nacional Potosi | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Club Aurora |
| 18/12/24 Bolivia Clausura | Club Aurora | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Nacional Potosi |
| 14/09/24 Bolivia Clausura | Nacional Potosi | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Club Aurora |
| 13/03/24 Bolivia Apertura | Club Aurora | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Nacional Potosi |
| 03/03/24 Bolivia Apertura | Nacional Potosi | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Club Aurora |
Standings · Bolivia Primera Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | The Strongest | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Club Aurora | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Bolivar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Blooming | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Independiente Petrolero | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| 7 | Guabira | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 20 | 11 |
| 8 | Universitario De Vinto | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 10 |
| 9 | Oriente Petrolero | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 10 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| 11 | Nacional Potosi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Potosi | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Real Oruro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 5 |
| 15 | GV San Jose | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional Potosi | Club Aurora |
|---|---|---|
| Guabira | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Always Ready | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| GV San Jose | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Universitario De Vinto | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Club Aurora (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional Potosi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05 | Guabira Bolivia Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 10 | L |
| 14/05 | Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 23/04 | Blooming Bolivia Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 11/04 | Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 05/03 | The Strongest America Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-5 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 01/03 | The Strongest America Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/02 | Botafogo Copa Libertadores Qualification |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
Club Aurora
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06 | Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Guabira Bolivia Primera Division |
0-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 28/04 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/04 | GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 9 | D |
| 12/04 | Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 04/04 | Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 18/03 | GV San Jose America Friendlies |
1-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 11/03 | GV San Jose America Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional Potosi vs Club Aurora?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Potosi win (56%). Probabilities: Nacional Potosi 56%, draw 23%, Club Aurora 21%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional Potosi vs Club Aurora?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Nacional Potosi 1.91 · Club Aurora 1.08), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional Potosi vs Club Aurora?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.