Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 19/07, 02:30

Prediction: Club Aurora vs Oriente Petrolero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Club Aurora1.95

Oriente Petrolero1.08

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Club Aurora Draw Oriente Petrolero

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Club Aurora 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDWWDWWL

Oriente Petrolero 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLDLL

Head-to-head

Club Aurora 2–1–3 Oriente Petrolero (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Aurora 1513 · Oriente Petrolero 1473

	Club Aurora	Draw	Oriente Petrolero
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Aurora (rating 1513 vs 1473).
H2H favours Oriente Petrolero: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Aurora	Oriente Petrolero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.5	5.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +2’	1.61	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Aurora 2–1–3 Oriente Petrolero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/08/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Oriente Petrolero	3-0 HT 0-0	Club Aurora
30/03/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Club Aurora	5-1 HT 3-1	Oriente Petrolero
25/09/24 Bolivia Clausura	Oriente Petrolero	5-0 HT 3-0	Club Aurora
12/05/24 Bolivia Clausura	Club Aurora	3-1 HT 3-1	Oriente Petrolero
13/11/23 Bolivia Clausura	Oriente Petrolero	1-0 HT 1-0	Club Aurora
15/05/23 Bolivia Apertura	Club Aurora	2-2 HT 1-0	Oriente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	The Strongest	9	6	3	0	15	8	21
2	Always Ready	9	6	2	1	20	5	20
3	Club Aurora	9	4	4	1	14	9	16
4	Bolivar	9	4	3	2	20	10	15
5	Real Potosi	9	3	4	2	14	7	13
6	Blooming	9	3	4	2	15	11	13
7	Nacional Potosi	9	3	3	3	12	10	12
8	Independiente Petrolero	9	3	3	3	13	15	12
9	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	9	4	0	5	16	21	12
10	Real Oruro	9	3	2	4	17	22	11
11	Guabira	9	3	2	4	14	20	11
12	Universitario De Vinto	9	3	1	5	15	16	10
13	Oriente Petrolero	9	3	1	5	11	13	10
14	Real Tomayapo	9	2	2	5	7	20	8
15	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	9	2	1	6	10	19	7
16	GV San Jose	9	1	3	5	10	17	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Aurora	Oriente Petrolero
Real Tomayapo	2-0 W	3-1 W
Guabira	4-2 W	2-2 D
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	3-1 W	0-2 L
GV San Jose	1-1 D	2-1 W
Always Ready	1-1 D	0-1 L
Real Potosi	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club Aurora (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Club Aurora

LDDDWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/07	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
02/06	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/05	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
02/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	4-2	4	7	W
28/04	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
22/04	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	0	9	D
12/04	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	8	9	D
04/04	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
18/03	GV San Jose America Friendlies	1-3	2-4	7	8	L

Oriente Petrolero

LLWLWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
31/05	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
15/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	2	10	D
11/05	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
03/05	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	3-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/04	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	1	6	W
22/04	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/04	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
05/04	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
12/03	The Strongest America Friendlies	0-1	0-3	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Aurora vs Oriente Petrolero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Aurora win (57%). Probabilities: Club Aurora 57%, draw 23%, Oriente Petrolero 20%.

How many goals are expected in Club Aurora vs Oriente Petrolero?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Club Aurora 1.95 · Oriente Petrolero 1.08), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Aurora vs Oriente Petrolero?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.