Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 08/08, 23:15

Prediction: The Strongest vs Independiente Petrolero

Team pages: The Strongest · Independiente Petrolero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

The Strongest2.71

Independiente Petrolero0.71

1X2

79% 14% 7%

The Strongest Draw Independiente Petrolero

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

The Strongest 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDDDW

Independiente Petrolero 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLWD

Head-to-head

The Strongest 5–1–0 Independiente Petrolero (6 last)

The Strongest3-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero1-1The Strongest
Independiente Petrolero0-2The Strongest
The Strongest5-0Independiente Petrolero
The Strongest2-0Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero1-4The Strongest

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · The Strongest 1567 · Independiente Petrolero 1438

	The Strongest	Draw	Independiente Petrolero
Our model	79%	15%	7%
Market	80%	13%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours The Strongest (rating 1567 vs 1438).
H2H favours The Strongest: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	The Strongest	Independiente Petrolero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.6	4.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.00

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.93

2 (+2.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:37 +2’	1.14	7.00	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · The Strongest 5–1–0 Independiente Petrolero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/25 Bolivia Primera Division	The Strongest	3-1 HT 1-0	Independiente Petrolero
27/04/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	1-1 HT 0-1	The Strongest
01/12/24 Bolivia Clausura	Independiente Petrolero	0-2 HT 0-0	The Strongest
04/08/24 Bolivia Clausura	The Strongest	5-0 HT 2-0	Independiente Petrolero
17/07/23 Bolivia Apertura	The Strongest	2-0 HT 1-0	Independiente Petrolero
12/02/23 Bolivia Apertura	Independiente Petrolero	1-4 HT 0-3	The Strongest

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	12	9	2	1	28	6	29
2	The Strongest	12	6	6	0	17	10	24
3	Club Aurora	13	5	7	1	21	15	22
4	Bolivar	12	6	3	3	26	12	21
5	Guabira	13	5	3	5	22	26	18
6	Real Potosi	12	4	5	3	17	10	17
7	Blooming	12	4	5	3	17	14	17
8	Oriente Petrolero	12	5	2	5	16	16	17
9	Independiente Petrolero	13	4	4	5	19	20	16
10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	13	5	1	7	24	28	16
11	Nacional Potosi	12	4	3	5	17	16	15
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
13	Real Oruro	13	4	2	7	23	34	14
14	GV San Jose	13	2	6	5	12	18	12
15	Universitario De Vinto	12	3	2	7	17	23	11
16	Real Tomayapo	13	2	3	8	9	29	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	The Strongest	Independiente Petrolero
Club Aurora	1-1 D	1-1 D
Blooming	1-1 D	3-1 W
Oriente Petrolero	2-1 W	1-2 L
Always Ready	1-0 W	0-0 D
Real Potosi	0-0 D	1-2 L
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	3-1 W	1-3 L
Real Oruro	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: The Strongest (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

The Strongest

WWDWDWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	3-2	1	4	W
31/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/07	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
19/07	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
16/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
12/07	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
14/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
10/05	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	7	9	D
03/05	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
26/04	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	3-2	6	5	W

Independiente Petrolero

DWLLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
01/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
26/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
16/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	9	L
13/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
28/05	Racing Club Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/05	Botafogo Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
14/05	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
10/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in The Strongest vs Independiente Petrolero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a The Strongest win (79%). Probabilities: The Strongest 79%, draw 14%, Independiente Petrolero 7%.

How many goals are expected in The Strongest vs Independiente Petrolero?

The model expects 3.42 goals (The Strongest 2.71 · Independiente Petrolero 0.71), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in The Strongest vs Independiente Petrolero?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.