Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 16/08, 23:15

Prediction: Nacional Potosi vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Team pages: Nacional Potosi · Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Nacional Potosi2.61

Academia de Balompie Boliviano1.02

1X2

70% 18% 12%

Nacional Potosi Draw Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Potosi 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLWLLL

Academia de Balompie Boliviano 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLDWL

Head-to-head

Nacional Potosi 3–1–0 Academia de Balompie Boliviano (4 last)

Nacional Potosi2-0Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Nacional Potosi4-2Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Academia de Balompie Boliviano1-3Nacional Potosi
Academia de Balompie Boliviano2-2Nacional Potosi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Potosi 1477 · Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1435

	Nacional Potosi	Draw	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Our model	71%	18%	12%
Market	70%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Potosi (rating 1477 vs 1435).
H2H favours Nacional Potosi: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Potosi	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	1.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.6	4.6 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:31 +17’	1.30	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Potosi 3–1–0 Academia de Balompie Boliviano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	2-0 HT 1-0	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
29/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Nacional Potosi	4-2 HT 3-1	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
03/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-3 HT 0-1	Nacional Potosi
07/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	2-2 HT 1-2	Nacional Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	14	10	3	1	31	8	33
2	Bolivar	14	8	3	3	32	15	27
3	The Strongest	14	7	6	1	21	14	27
4	Real Potosi	14	6	5	3	21	10	23
5	Club Aurora	14	5	7	2	23	19	22
6	Guabira	14	6	3	5	23	26	21
7	Oriente Petrolero	14	6	2	6	22	18	20
8	Independiente Petrolero	14	5	4	5	21	21	19
9	Blooming	14	4	6	4	17	16	18
10	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	14	5	2	7	17	24	17
11	Real Oruro	14	5	2	7	25	35	17
12	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	14	5	1	8	24	29	16
13	Nacional Potosi	14	4	3	7	20	21	15
14	GV San Jose	14	2	6	6	14	21	12
15	Universitario De Vinto	14	3	2	9	17	30	11
16	Real Tomayapo	14	2	3	9	10	31	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Potosi	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	1-2 L	1-2 L
The Strongest	2-3 L	1-3 L
Oriente Petrolero	0-1 L	3-1 W
Real Tomayapo	4-1 W	1-1 D
Real Oruro	1-4 L	4-1 W
Real Potosi	1-1 D	1-3 L
Club Aurora	2-0 W	2-3 L
Guabira	1-2 L	0-1 L
Always Ready	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Potosi (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Potosi

LDLWDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
03/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
27/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
21/07	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
10/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	0	10	L
14/05	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
02/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-3	8	1	L

Academia de Balompie Boliviano

LWLLWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
04/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-1	5	4	W
01/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
25/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-3	4	10	L
20/07	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
16/07	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-1	2	9	W
09/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	1-3	8	7	L
30/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-3	1	7	L
11/05	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	9	4	W
03/05	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Potosi vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Potosi win (70%). Probabilities: Nacional Potosi 70%, draw 18%, Academia de Balompie Boliviano 12%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Potosi vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Nacional Potosi 2.61 · Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1.02), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Potosi vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.