Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 09/08, 01:30

Prediction: Club Aurora vs Bolivar

Team pages: Club Aurora · Bolivar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Club Aurora1.5

Bolivar1.92

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Club Aurora Draw Bolivar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Club Aurora 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLDWDD

Bolivar 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Club Aurora 2–1–3 Bolivar (6 last)

Bolivar6-1Club Aurora
Club Aurora0-2Bolivar
Bolivar5-1Club Aurora
Bolivar0-1Club Aurora
Club Aurora1-1Bolivar
Club Aurora1-0Bolivar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Aurora 1534 · Bolivar 1546

	Club Aurora	Draw	Bolivar
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bolivar: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Aurora	Bolivar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.7	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.80

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.17 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +6’	3.10	3.80	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +6’	2.67	3.62	2.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Aurora 2–1–3 Bolivar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Bolivar	6-1 HT 3-1	Club Aurora
12/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Club Aurora	0-2 HT 0-1	Bolivar
28/02/25 America Friendlies	Bolivar	5-1 HT 2-0	Club Aurora
20/10/24 Bolivia Clausura	Bolivar	0-1 HT 0-0	Club Aurora
23/05/24 Bolivia Clausura	Club Aurora	1-1 HT 0-1	Bolivar
15/12/23 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Club Aurora	1-0 HT 0-0	Bolivar

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	13	9	3	1	28	6	30
2	The Strongest	13	7	6	0	20	12	27
3	Bolivar	13	7	3	3	28	13	24
4	Club Aurora	13	5	7	1	21	15	22
5	Guabira	14	6	3	5	23	26	21
6	Real Potosi	13	5	5	3	19	10	20
7	Blooming	13	4	6	3	17	14	18
8	Oriente Petrolero	13	5	2	6	17	18	17
9	Real Oruro	14	5	2	7	25	35	17
10	Independiente Petrolero	13	4	4	5	19	20	16
11	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	14	5	1	8	24	29	16
12	Nacional Potosi	13	4	3	6	19	19	15
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	13	4	2	7	15	23	14
14	GV San Jose	13	2	6	5	12	18	12
15	Universitario De Vinto	13	3	2	8	17	25	11
16	Real Tomayapo	14	2	3	9	10	31	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Aurora	Bolivar
The Strongest	1-1 D	1-1 D
Oriente Petrolero	2-2 D	2-1 W
Universitario De Vinto	2-1 W	2-3 L
Guabira	4-2 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bolivar (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Club Aurora

WWDWWLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	12	6	D
31/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
25/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	3-2	3	10	W
19/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	11	5	D
10/07	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
02/06	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/05	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
02/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	4-2	4	7	W
28/04	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	3-1	3	7	W

Bolivar

LLLDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	13	5	W
02/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
31/07	Gremio Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
26/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
24/07	Gremio Copa Sudamericana	2-2	3-2	6	2	W
18/07	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
12/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
28/05	Independiente Rivadavia Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-3	8	6	L
20/05	Fluminense Copa Libertadores	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
16/05	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Aurora vs Bolivar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bolivar win (47%). Probabilities: Club Aurora 29%, draw 24%, Bolivar 47%.

How many goals are expected in Club Aurora vs Bolivar?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Club Aurora 1.5 · Bolivar 1.92), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Aurora vs Bolivar?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.