Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 21/07, 01:00

Prediction: Nacional Potosi vs Real Oruro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Nacional Potosi2.31

Real Oruro1.04

1X2

65% 19% 15%

Nacional Potosi Draw Real Oruro

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Potosi 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLDLWD

Real Oruro 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDDWLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Nacional Potosi 1–1–2 Real Oruro (4 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Potosi 1503 · Real Oruro 1457

	Nacional Potosi	Draw	Real Oruro
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	66%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Potosi (rating 1503 vs 1457).
H2H favours Real Oruro: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Potosi	Real Oruro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.8 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.9	1.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.7	4.8 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.42

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42
X	4.50 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	5.50 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +8’	1.40	4.50	5.50
14:06 +1’	1.42▲	5.00▲	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Potosi 1–1–2 Real Oruro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Oruro	1-2 HT 1-2	Nacional Potosi
27/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Nacional Potosi	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Oruro
11/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Real Oruro	1-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
15/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	2-3 HT 2-1	Real Oruro

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	10	7	2	1	24	5	23
2	The Strongest	9	6	3	0	15	8	21
3	Bolivar	10	5	3	2	24	10	18
4	Club Aurora	10	4	5	1	16	11	17
5	Real Potosi	9	3	4	2	14	7	13
6	Blooming	9	3	4	2	15	11	13
7	Nacional Potosi	9	3	3	3	12	10	12
8	Independiente Petrolero	9	3	3	3	13	15	12
9	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	9	4	0	5	16	21	12
10	Oriente Petrolero	10	3	2	5	13	15	11
11	Real Oruro	9	3	2	4	17	22	11
12	Guabira	10	3	2	5	14	24	11
13	Universitario De Vinto	10	3	1	6	15	20	10
14	Real Tomayapo	9	2	2	5	7	20	8
15	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	9	2	1	6	10	19	7
16	GV San Jose	9	1	3	5	10	17	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Potosi	Real Oruro
Always Ready	1-3 L	0-6 L
GV San Jose	1-1 D	3-1 W
Universitario De Vinto	1-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Oruro (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Nacional Potosi

LWWLDLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
10/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	0	10	L
14/05	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
02/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-3	8	1	L
25/04	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
23/04	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-2	2	9	L
11/04	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
03/04	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	3-0	6	7	W
05/03	The Strongest America Friendlies	0-1	1-5	8	5	L

Real Oruro

DDDWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	EM Huanuni Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
15/07	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-3	0-6	4	4	L
13/07	Club Ingenieros Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
11/07	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	3-1	6	9	W
09/07	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
05/07	CD Guadalajara Qaqachaca Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
21/06	Club Ingenieros Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-2	3-2	–	–	W
07/06	FC 22 de Octubre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	2-2	5-5	–	–	D
31/05	Club Ingenieros Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
24/05	Deportivo Shalon Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	1-1	7	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Potosi vs Real Oruro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Potosi win (65%). Probabilities: Nacional Potosi 65%, draw 19%, Real Oruro 15%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Potosi vs Real Oruro?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Nacional Potosi 2.31 · Real Oruro 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Potosi vs Real Oruro?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.