Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 27/07, 01:30

Prediction: Nacional Potosi vs Real Tomayapo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Nacional Potosi2.2

Real Tomayapo0.83

1X2

68% 19% 13%

Nacional Potosi Draw Real Tomayapo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Potosi 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDLWDL

Real Tomayapo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWLLWL

Head-to-head

Nacional Potosi 4–2–0 Real Tomayapo (6 last)

Nacional Potosi1-0Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo0-1Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi1-1Real Tomayapo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Potosi 1492 · Real Tomayapo 1438

	Nacional Potosi	Draw	Real Tomayapo
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Potosi (rating 1492 vs 1438).
H2H favours Nacional Potosi: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Potosi	Real Tomayapo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.5	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.8	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.33▲	Bet365 1.33
X	5.25 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	8.50 → 7.00▼	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:50 +4’	1.28	5.25	8.50
16:59 +4’	1.33▲	5.00▼	7.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Potosi 4–2–0 Real Tomayapo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Tomayapo
23/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Tomayapo	0-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
23/03/25 America Friendlies	Nacional Potosi	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Tomayapo
20/03/25 America Friendlies	Real Tomayapo	1-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
30/10/24 Bolivia Clausura	Nacional Potosi	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Tomayapo
07/09/24 Club Friendly List	Real Tomayapo	1-3 HT 1-2	Nacional Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	10	7	2	1	24	5	23
2	The Strongest	10	6	4	0	15	8	22
3	Club Aurora	11	5	5	1	19	13	20
4	Bolivar	10	5	3	2	24	10	18
5	Real Potosi	10	4	4	2	16	8	16
6	Blooming	10	4	4	2	16	11	16
7	Real Oruro	10	4	2	4	21	23	14
8	Nacional Potosi	10	3	3	4	13	14	12
9	Independiente Petrolero	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	11	4	0	7	19	26	12
11	Oriente Petrolero	10	3	2	5	13	15	11
12	Guabira	10	3	2	5	14	24	11
13	Universitario De Vinto	10	3	1	6	15	20	10
14	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	10	3	1	6	12	20	10
15	Real Tomayapo	10	2	2	6	7	21	8
16	GV San Jose	10	1	4	5	10	17	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Potosi	Real Tomayapo
Real Potosi	1-1 D	1-1 D
Club Aurora	2-0 W	0-2 L
Bolivar	1-1 D	0-6 L
Always Ready	1-3 L	0-4 L
GV San Jose	1-1 D	2-3 L
Blooming	1-2 L	0-1 L
Independiente Petrolero	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Potosi (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Potosi

WWLDLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
10/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	0	10	L
14/05	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
02/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-3	8	1	L
25/04	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
23/04	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-2	2	9	L
11/04	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
03/04	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	3-0	6	7	W

Real Tomayapo

LDDLLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
13/07	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
08/07	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-3	4	2	L
16/05	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
10/05	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
03/05	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-3	1-3	10	3	L
26/04	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-6	0	3	L
24/04	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
14/04	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/04	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-4	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Potosi vs Real Tomayapo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Potosi win (68%). Probabilities: Nacional Potosi 68%, draw 19%, Real Tomayapo 13%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Potosi vs Real Tomayapo?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Nacional Potosi 2.2 · Real Tomayapo 0.83), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Potosi vs Real Tomayapo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.