Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 26/07, 23:15

Prediction: Bolivar vs Real Potosi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Bolivar2.45

Real Potosi0.81

1X2

73% 16% 10%

Bolivar Draw Real Potosi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Bolivar 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLLDWW

Real Potosi 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLLDWDWW

Head-to-head

Bolivar 5–1–0 Real Potosi (6 last)

Real Potosi1-3Bolivar
Bolivar3-1Real Potosi
Real Potosi0-2Bolivar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bolivar 1541 · Real Potosi 1503

	Bolivar	Draw	Real Potosi
Our model	73%	18%	10%
Market	74%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bolivar: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bolivar	Real Potosi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.3	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 1.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:47 +2’	1.25	6.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bolivar 5–1–0 Real Potosi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 America Friendlies	Real Potosi	1-3 HT 0-1	Bolivar
14/02/26 America Friendlies	Bolivar	3-1 HT 1-0	Real Potosi
20/08/21 Bolivia Apertura	Real Potosi	0-2 HT 0-2	Bolivar
22/03/21 Bolivia Apertura	Bolivar	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Potosi
26/12/20 Bolivia Apertura	Real Potosi	2-3 HT 1-2	Bolivar
01/03/20 Bolivia Apertura	Bolivar	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	10	7	2	1	24	5	23
2	The Strongest	10	6	4	0	15	8	22
3	Club Aurora	11	5	5	1	19	13	20
4	Bolivar	10	5	3	2	24	10	18
5	Real Potosi	10	4	4	2	16	8	16
6	Blooming	10	4	4	2	16	11	16
7	Real Oruro	10	4	2	4	21	23	14
8	Nacional Potosi	10	3	3	4	13	14	12
9	Independiente Petrolero	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	11	4	0	7	19	26	12
11	Oriente Petrolero	10	3	2	5	13	15	11
12	Guabira	10	3	2	5	14	24	11
13	Universitario De Vinto	10	3	1	6	15	20	10
14	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	10	3	1	6	12	20	10
15	Real Tomayapo	10	2	2	6	7	21	8
16	GV San Jose	10	1	4	5	10	17	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bolivar	Real Potosi
Guabira	4-0 W	3-0 W
The Strongest	1-1 D	0-0 D
Nacional Potosi	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bolivar (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bolivar

WDDDLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Gremio Copa Sudamericana	2-2	3-2	6	2	W
18/07	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
12/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
28/05	Independiente Rivadavia Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-3	8	6	L
20/05	Fluminense Copa Libertadores	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
16/05	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-3	5	4	L
14/05	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
11/05	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
07/05	Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
03/05	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	7	6	W

Real Potosi

DDWLLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
16/07	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
12/07	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
09/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	3-1	4	7	W
10/05	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
01/05	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-2	8	6	L
27/04	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
23/04	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	3-0	6	7	W
14/04	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/04	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bolivar vs Real Potosi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bolivar win (73%). Probabilities: Bolivar 73%, draw 16%, Real Potosi 10%.

How many goals are expected in Bolivar vs Real Potosi?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Bolivar 2.45 · Real Potosi 0.81), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bolivar vs Real Potosi?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.