Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 26/07, 01:30

Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Independiente Petrolero1.62

Oriente Petrolero1.33

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Independiente Petrolero Draw Oriente Petrolero

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Petrolero 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLLLLL

Oriente Petrolero 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLDLLD

Head-to-head

Independiente Petrolero 3–1–2 Oriente Petrolero (6 last)

Oriente Petrolero2-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero1-0Oriente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero5-2Oriente Petrolero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1421 · Oriente Petrolero 1474

	Independiente Petrolero	Draw	Oriente Petrolero
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oriente Petrolero (rating 1421 vs 1474).
H2H favours Independiente Petrolero: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Petrolero	Oriente Petrolero
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.6	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:15 +10’	2.10	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 3–1–2 Oriente Petrolero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/09/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Oriente Petrolero	2-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero
27/07/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Independiente Petrolero	1-0 HT 0-0	Oriente Petrolero
11/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	5-2 HT 3-0	Oriente Petrolero
30/04/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Oriente Petrolero	2-0 HT 2-0	Independiente Petrolero
23/11/24 Bolivia Clausura	Oriente Petrolero	1-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero
22/05/24 Bolivia Clausura	Independiente Petrolero	3-2 HT 2-1	Oriente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	10	7	2	1	24	5	23
2	The Strongest	10	6	4	0	15	8	22
3	Bolivar	10	5	3	2	24	10	18
4	Club Aurora	10	4	5	1	16	11	17
5	Real Potosi	10	4	4	2	16	8	16
6	Blooming	10	4	4	2	16	11	16
7	Real Oruro	10	4	2	4	21	23	14
8	Nacional Potosi	10	3	3	4	13	14	12
9	Independiente Petrolero	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	10	4	0	6	17	23	12
11	Oriente Petrolero	10	3	2	5	13	15	11
12	Guabira	10	3	2	5	14	24	11
13	Universitario De Vinto	10	3	1	6	15	20	10
14	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	10	3	1	6	12	20	10
15	Real Tomayapo	10	2	2	6	7	21	8
16	GV San Jose	10	1	4	5	10	17	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Petrolero	Oriente Petrolero
Real Potosi	1-2 L	2-0 W
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-3 L	1-3 L
Real Tomayapo	1-2 L	3-1 W
Blooming	3-1 W	0-1 L
Always Ready	0-0 D	0-1 L
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Petrolero (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Independiente Petrolero

LDLDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
16/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	9	L
13/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
28/05	Racing Club Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/05	Botafogo Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
14/05	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
10/05	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
06/05	Caracas Copa Sudamericana	0-2	2-3	4	3	L
01/05	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
29/04	Botafogo Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-3	1	4	L

Oriente Petrolero

LWLWWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
16/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
31/05	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
15/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	2	10	D
11/05	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
03/05	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	3-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/04	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	1	6	W
22/04	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/04	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
05/04	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Petrolero win (44%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 44%, draw 26%, Oriente Petrolero 30%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.62 · Oriente Petrolero 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.