Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 25/07, 23:15

Prediction: Guabira vs Real Oruro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Guabira2.36

Real Oruro1.67

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Guabira Draw Real Oruro

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guabira 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWDWWL

Real Oruro 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Guabira 2–0 Real Oruro (2 last)

Real Oruro3-6Guabira
Guabira3-1Real Oruro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guabira 1492 · Real Oruro 1471

	Guabira	Draw	Real Oruro
Our model	52%	21%	27%
Market	52%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guabira: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guabira	Real Oruro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	2.1 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 1	4.2 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:15 +9’	1.80	4.10	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guabira 2–0–0 Real Oruro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/09/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Oruro	3-6 HT 2-2	Guabira
10/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Guabira	3-1 HT 1-1	Real Oruro

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	10	7	2	1	24	5	23
2	The Strongest	10	6	4	0	15	8	22
3	Bolivar	10	5	3	2	24	10	18
4	Club Aurora	10	4	5	1	16	11	17
5	Real Potosi	10	4	4	2	16	8	16
6	Blooming	10	4	4	2	16	11	16
7	Real Oruro	10	4	2	4	21	23	14
8	Nacional Potosi	10	3	3	4	13	14	12
9	Independiente Petrolero	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	10	4	0	6	17	23	12
11	Oriente Petrolero	10	3	2	5	13	15	11
12	Guabira	10	3	2	5	14	24	11
13	Universitario De Vinto	10	3	1	6	15	20	10
14	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	10	3	1	6	12	20	10
15	Real Tomayapo	10	2	2	6	7	21	8
16	GV San Jose	10	1	4	5	10	17	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guabira	Real Oruro
Nacional Potosi	2-1 W	4-1 W
GV San Jose	3-0 W	3-1 W
Always Ready	1-2 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guabira (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Guabira

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
29/05	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
18/05	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	5	10	W
15/05	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	5	10	D
09/05	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
02/05	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-4	1	7	L
26/04	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
23/04	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
11/04	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
04/04	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-3	0-5	2	7	L

Real Oruro

DDWLWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	4-1	2	4	W
19/07	EM Huanuni Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
15/07	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-3	0-6	4	4	L
13/07	Club Ingenieros Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
11/07	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	3-1	6	9	W
09/07	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
05/07	CD Guadalajara Qaqachaca Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
21/06	Club Ingenieros Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-2	3-2	–	–	W
07/06	FC 22 de Octubre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	2-2	5-5	–	–	D
31/05	Club Ingenieros Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	1-0	2-2	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guabira vs Real Oruro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guabira win (52%). Probabilities: Guabira 52%, draw 22%, Real Oruro 26%.

How many goals are expected in Guabira vs Real Oruro?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Guabira 2.36 · Real Oruro 1.67), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guabira vs Real Oruro?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.