Prediction: Auckland FC II vs Bay Olympic
Expected goals: 3.24 (Auckland FC II 2.18 · Bay Olympic 1.06). The model gives 62% home, 21% draw, 17% away. Under 3.25 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Auckland FC II with 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses over 10 games; Bay Olympic has piled up 2-0-8 in the same span. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Auckland FC II won 1 and Bay Olympic 0, with 1 draw.
| Auckland FC II | Draw | Bay Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland FC II (rating 1492 vs 1421).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland FC II | Bay Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 5.4 | 2.4 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland FC II 1–1–0 Bay Olympic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Auckland FC II |
| 17/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Bay Olympic |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | East Coast Bays | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 28 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 28 |
| 6 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 |
| 7 | Western Springs AFC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 8 | Auckland FC II | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 28 | 15 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 10 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | 10 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland FC II | Bay Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland City | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Manukau United | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Western Springs AFC | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Birkenhead United | 0-2 L | 2-6 L |
| East Coast Bays | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Auckland United FC | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland FC II (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | South Melbourne OFC Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | South Island United OFC Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
Bay Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland FC II vs Bay Olympic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland FC II win (62%). Probabilities: Auckland FC II 62%, draw 21%, Bay Olympic 17%.
How many goals are expected in Auckland FC II vs Bay Olympic?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Auckland FC II 2.18 · Bay Olympic 1.06), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Auckland FC II vs Bay Olympic?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.