Football · New Zealand Northern League · 11/07, 04:00
Prediction: Tauranga City AFC vs Auckland FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Tauranga City AFC1.43
Auckland FC II1.81
1X2
Tauranga City AFC
Draw
Auckland FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tauranga City AFC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Auckland FC II
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tauranga City AFC
2–1–0
Auckland FC II
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tauranga City AFC 1436 · Auckland FC II 1497
| Tauranga City AFC | Draw | Auckland FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 25% | 46% |
| Market | 31% | 22% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland FC II (rating 1436 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Tauranga City AFC: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tauranga City AFC | Auckland FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.1 | 4.4 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tauranga City AFC 2–1–0 Auckland FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Tauranga City AFC |
| 30/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Auckland FC II |
| 29/03/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Tauranga City AFC |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | East Coast Bays | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 28 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 28 |
| 6 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 |
| 7 | Western Springs AFC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 8 | Auckland FC II | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 18 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 10 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tauranga City AFC | Auckland FC II |
|---|---|---|
| East Coast Bays | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Bay Olympic | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Manukau United | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Western Springs AFC | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Birkenhead United | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Auckland United FC | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Auckland City | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland FC II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tauranga City AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-4 | 1-7 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Auckland FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | South Melbourne OFC Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | South Island United OFC Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tauranga City AFC vs Auckland FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland FC II win (46%). Probabilities: Tauranga City AFC 30%, draw 24%, Auckland FC II 46%.
How many goals are expected in Tauranga City AFC vs Auckland FC II?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Tauranga City AFC 1.43 · Auckland FC II 1.81), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tauranga City AFC vs Auckland FC II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.