Football · New Zealand Northern League · 11/07, 05:00
Prediction: Melville United vs Bay Olympic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.08Total
Melville United1.6
Bay Olympic1.49
1X2
Melville United
Draw
Bay Olympic
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Melville United
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Bay Olympic
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melville United
5–1–0
Bay Olympic
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melville United 1427 · Bay Olympic 1413
| Melville United | Draw | Bay Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 24% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Melville United: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melville United | Bay Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2.2 | 0.8 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.5 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melville United 5–1–0 Bay Olympic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Melville United |
| 17/08/24 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Melville United |
| 18/05/24 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bay Olympic |
| 05/08/23 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Melville United |
| 29/04/23 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Bay Olympic |
| 11/06/22 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Melville United |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 8 | 41 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | East Coast Bays | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 28 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 28 |
| 6 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 28 |
| 7 | Western Springs AFC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 8 | Auckland FC II | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 18 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 12 |
| 10 | Melville United | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 10 |
| 11 | Bay Olympic | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 35 | 10 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melville United | Bay Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland United FC | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Fencibles United | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Tauranga City AFC | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Auckland City | 0-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Manukau United | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Auckland FC II | 2-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Western Springs AFC | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melville United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Hibiscus Coast New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Bay Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melville United vs Bay Olympic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melville United win (40%). Probabilities: Melville United 40%, draw 25%, Bay Olympic 35%.
How many goals are expected in Melville United vs Bay Olympic?
The model expects 3.08 goals (Melville United 1.6 · Bay Olympic 1.49), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Melville United vs Bay Olympic?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.